Of Particular Significance

Category: Higgs

The rumors about the Higgs particle at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] have begun again, and since that’s all anyone is going to want to talk about until we actually get the news for real, at the ICHEP conference in Melbourne in a couple of weeks, we may as well get started.

[This is especially true since we learned last year that some well-known non-particle-physicist bloggers have information pipelines directly into the experiments.  It is perhaps inevitable that there are scientists who see it in their best interest to subvert the scientific process.]

The current hot rumor is that the LHC experiments ATLAS and CMS have seen, in the new 2012 data, very roughly what they saw last December in the 2011 data, at least as far as the signal from a Higgs decaying to two photons (particles of light) in the mass range of 125 GeV/c2.  Note I am just repeating what I have seen on other blogs; as a matter of policy, I do not report secret information on this website, and I make no comment on the validity of any rumors.

Suppose this were true; what would it mean?  Well, it’s pointless to try to speculate about exactly how many standard deviations you would obtain by combining data in various ways — if I tried, the only thing I could guarantee you was that I’d get it wrong.  So rather than kick arbitrary numbers around based on guesswork, let’s talk about the larger picture.

There are two ways to think about the 2011 and 2012 data. One is to think about them as data sets you should combine together to extract the maximum information.  That’s what you would ideally do if you had access to all of the data and knew all the subtleties about how to do this.  It is not going to be that easy. Among many issues, one is that the data are taken at different energies, 8 TeV per proton-proton collision this year versus 7 TeV last year.  So in combining them you are making a theoretical assumption about how the production rate for Higgs particles changes as you change the energy from 7 TeV to 8 TeV.  That’s something you may or may not want to do, and at best it makes things rather complicated when you try to interpret the result.

Another way to think about it, as I discussed last week — and I think this will turn out to be more useful as a rule of thumb — is that last year’s data was good for excluding the Standard Model Higgs particle over much of the range for its mass that was available before 2011.  From a range of 115 to 800 GeV/c2 we’re now down, after 2011, to a range of something like 120 to 128  (where we can argue about the edges, but it doesn’t matter very much) or above 600.  The hints we saw last year at around 125 GeV/c2 (see also here, here and here) were very interesting and suggestive, but weren’t convincing, in part because with such a large range of possibilities to explore, the possibility of such hints appearing by random chance was not that low.  That’s due to the so-called “look-elsewhere effect”.  One could only obtain high significance by combining lots of different low-significance measurements together, a technique which can be very problematic, especially when some of these measurements are very difficult.

Now we come to 2012.  The LHC experiments ATLAS and CMS have just about the same number of collisions so far in 2012 as they had in all of 2011; and since the energy is a bit higher, the production rate for Higgs particles should be a bit higher (by several tens of percent.)  So what we’re going to see in the current 2012 data is a bit like a do-over of 2011… except that now the range of possible Higgs masses that needs to be explored is much smaller.  The smaller range means that if the same hints were seen in the same place as they were seen in 2011, the probability of this happening in the search region by random chance would be much lower than in 2011.  More precisely, this means the difference between the naive significance of any excess in the data, and the significance after accounting for the look-elsewhere effect, will not be very important.  Look-elsewhere was a big effect in 2011; but after the 2011 results, it will not be a big effect in 2012.  Thus (roughly) if you view the 2011 data as needed to narrow down the search region to a small window, you can roughly take the significance of any reported 2012 excess almost at face value.

So suppose we did see hints in the 2012 data that roughly resemble those in the 2011 data?  Then I think you’ll see most everyone agree that the evidence for something real in the data is pretty strong.  Of course we’ll need to see this in both the ATLAS and CMS experiments to have full confidence, but let’s assume that’s the case.  What would be next?

  • First, is what’s being seen in the data a Higgs particle at all?  Could it be something else?
  • Second, if it is a Higgs particle, is it the simplest possible type of Higgs particle — the Standard Model Higgs particle — or is it something more complicated?

I’ve described in some detail previously the strategy used to answer these questions, so I refer you to that article.

Generally, I suspect that the July 2012 data won’t be enough (even if you did try to combine it with the 2011 data) to shed clear light on these questions.  But the strong theoretical prejudice on the first question will clearly be that “what’s being seen is a Higgs particle of some type”; after all, the theory of the weak nuclear force requires there be something Higgs-like somewhere, and the Higgs in this mass range was predicted to show up first as a bump in the two-photon search.  I don’t think you’ll find many people who will think it likely that it’s not a Higgs particle, though due diligence will of course be needed to make sure.

The theoretical prejudice on the second question is much weaker, however; we really have no idea whether the Higgs is of Standard Model type or not.  But it seems likely we’ll need the full year’s data set before we start making much progress on this crucial issue (though surprises are possible, if the Higgs is sufficiently different from a Standard Model-type Higgs).  And indeed, even if the Higgs looks somewhat Standard-Model-Higgs-like by the end of the year, our knowledge will still be vague; through Phase 2 of the Higgs search, we’ll be continuing to address the issue for the rest of the decade, making more and more precise measurements of the properties of the Higgs, looking for any deviation from the Standard Model’s predictions.

All of this assumes the rumors are correct.  IF it is true that ATLAS and CMS see something of roughly the same size as last year, in exactly the same place in their plots, then that would mean that evidence for the existence of some type of Higgs particle in the 125 GeV/c2 range had firmed up considerably.  And that would be Very Big News.  Well — we’ll find out soon enough.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON June 18, 2012

Over the weekend, the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] passed a significant milestone: the amount of data collected so far in 2012 now exceeds the amount of data collected in 2011.  (The LHC is also running very efficiently right now.)  As you may recall, the data is being taken at a slightly higher energy than last year — 8 TeV instead of 7 TeV for each proton-proton collision — and among the benefits of this change are slightly higher probabilities of making Higgs particles.  In short, more Higgs particles (assuming they exist) have now been made this year than last, and if last year’s preliminary evidence of a Standard Model (or Standard-Model-like) Higgs particle [the simplest possible type of Higgs particle] with a mass of about 125 GeV/c2 turns out not to be a mirage, then the number of Higgs particles produced so far this year is about 100,000 for the CMS experiment and a similar number for the ATLAS experiment.  Most of these Higgs particles decay in ways that make them indistinguishable from other processes, but the dozens that decay to two photons and the handful that decay to two lepton/anti-lepton pairs will be the most important in this year’s search.

When will we see results from the new data on the search for the Higgs particle?  (Remember we’re still at the end of Phase 1 of this search, in which the goal is to find or exclude the Standard Model Higgs particle.) (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON June 11, 2012

For those of you curious about why posts have been a little sparse this month and have been wondering what I’ve been up to, here’s the latest on what has been an on-going story.

The Large Hadron Collider [LHC] is producing lots of new data, and the search for the Higgs particle continues at the ATLAS and CMS experiments. We’re still within Phase 1 of the search for the Higgs particle (I’ve described the two main phases here and in more detail here) in which the experiments are trying to discover unequivocally, or exclude unequivocally, the simplest possible form of the Higgs particle, which is called the Standard Model Higgs. Phase 1 is well along the way, the experimenters having excluded a Standard Model Higgs particle at any mass except a small range around 125 GeV/c2. Within that range there are hints that a Higgs particle might be showing up (see here, here, here and here). Some would say the evidence is significant and are quite convinced already, while others (quite a few of the experimentalists, and a few cautious theorists such as myself) would say the hints are not yet especially significant and are willing to let more data settle the issue. But everyone agrees there’s a very high chance the issue will be settled in 2012.

At that point, the Higgs search will move toward Phase 2. In fact, in some sense it is already in transition, because either there is a Standard Model Higgs particle with a mass near 125 GeV/c2, or the Higgs particle, if it exists, must be more exotic and complicated — two possibilities on which we can focus our planning.

One of the most important questions that will be asked (and is already being asked) is whether the particle that is showing up in the 2011 data (if it is really there in the first place) is a Standard Model Higgs or a look-alike Higgs particle that is actually more complicated in some way. (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON May 30, 2012

The final panel discussion at the Maryland SEARCH workshop — six theoretical particle physicists talking about the 2011 experimental results from the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] and looking ahead to the 2012 data — has finally been posted online, along with the rest of the presentations at the workshop. I wrote about the workshop, which took place in mid-March, here and here.  In the latter post, I wrote:

The workshop concluded with a panel discussion — the only point during the entire workshop when theorists were formally asked to say something. The panel consisted of Michael Peskin (senior statesman [and my Ph.D. advisor] famous for many reasons, including fundamental work on the implications of highly precise measurements ), Nima Arkani-Hamed (junior statesman, and famous for helping develop several revolutionary new ways of approaching the hierarchy problem),  Riccardo Rattazzi (also famous for conceptual advances in dealing with the hierarchy problem), Gavin Salam (famous for his work advancing the applications of the theory of quarks and gluons, including revolutionary methods for dealing with jets), and myself (famous for talking too much… though come to think of it, that was true of the whole panel, except Gavin.) And Raman Sundrum, one of the organizers (and famous for his collaboration with Lisa Randall in introducing “warped” extra dimensions, and also anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking [which was competitive with a paper by Rattazzi and his colleagues]) informally participated too. (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON May 4, 2012

My talk for the general public about the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] and the search for the Higgs particle, given online as part of the series of talks put on by MICA (Meta Institute for Computational Astrophysics) at Caltech, is now posted.  The pdf of the slides, and the audio, are available here:

http://www.mica-vw.org/wiki/index.php/A_Ring_Of_Truth_-_Seeking_Answers_to_Big_Questions_at_the_Large_Hadron_Collider

And I recommend you take a look at their other talks also; it’s a great list.

http://www.mica-vw.org/wiki/index.php/Popular_Talks

What is MICA?  Here’s what they say at their website.

Meta Institute for Computational Astrophysics

  • The Meta Institute for Computational Astrophysics (MICA) is a professional scientific and educational, non-profit organization based in virtual worlds [VWs]. We are currently using Second Life (SL), and the Intel’s OpenSim-based world ScienceSim, and may expand to other venues as the VWs evolve.

You will sense, if you listen to the talk, that the virtual world is still a little buggy, there are some amusing moments!  But on the whole, the virtual world offers many new opportunities for bringing together large but dispersed communities of people with common interests.

Since particle physicists are dispersed across the globe, in professional settings we use video and audio conferencing all the time.  In fact, in just a few minutes after posting this, I’m going to listen to and watch a presentation at a conference at the CERN Laboratory (which houses the LHC) from the comfort of my office.  I’ve attended conferences in Geneva while in Ontario, and attended conferences in India while in New York.  I’ve even given a talk to a conference in Europe while I was just outside one of our National Parks in California!  (You can either view this as letting work intrude into a vacation, or not allowing work to prevent a vacation; up to you.)  And any experimentalist at the LHC probably attends at least one virtual meeting each day.  So for our especially international and collaborative community, virtual experiences have been the norm for quite a while.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON May 2, 2012

I’m preparing an article on a very important type of energy that I’ve avoided writing about so far — the energy that comes from the interaction among fields.  I’ve avoided it because it’s tricky to figure out how to explain it.  But it’s important, for this form of energy is responsible for all the structure in the universe, from atoms to galaxies.  The article’s not quite ready yet, so today I’ve just got some good reading material for you, including the heavy, the weird, the amusing, and the optimistic. (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON April 26, 2012

Every time I turn around, the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] is breaking another record. Since 2012 data-taking began April 5th, the news has been improving steadily and rapidly.  Over the weekend, the accelerator physicists brought proton-proton collision rates — the total number of collisions per second — back up to the same level as last year’s record, and even a bit beyond.  The LHC produced over these two days more than six times as much data as was obtained in all of 2010, and a quarter of what was obtained in the first three months of 2011.  Granted, the accelerator physicists won’t keep up this torrid pace every day; there are times (typically weekends and overnights) where the LHC produces lots of data, and other times where the focus is on improving the accelerator and much less data is gathered.  But so far the signs are very good indeed.  Some experts were unsure whether the move from 7 TeV to 8 TeV energy per collision would be smooth, but fortunately it seems that the accelerator is performing very well at the new energy.

Two differences from last year that are important to know:

  • The energy per collision is higher:  8 TeV of energy for each proton-proton collision, rather than 7 TeV last year.
  • The simultaneous collision rate (or “pile-up”) is higher: the current high collision rate per second is being obtained with a smaller number of bunches of protons per beam than at the end of last year, by about 25%, which means the number of simultaneous collisions has gone up by about 25%, to as many as 30 collisions or so happening at virtually the same instant.  (Pile-up will be a recurrent theme (and perhaps thorn) in 2012.)  But the use of fewer bunches at the present time means that more bunches can be added later, which will allow another increase in the collision rate per second sometime this year (I’m not sure when.)

The challenges ahead for the ATLAS and CMS experiments to handle this firehose of data, especially the pile-up, are not to be minimized.  I’ve written about one of the big challenges here; there are others.  But better to have to face these difficulties than to be sitting idly, twiddling their thumbs and waiting for data to start showing up!   Also, the more data they get in the early part of 2012, the sooner Phase 1 of the search for the Higgs particle will come to a close — and the more likely that July 2012 will see significant news, perhaps fairly convincing news, concerning the hint of a Higgs particle with a mass of about 125 GeV/c2.

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON April 17, 2012

I’ve now finished the last installment of the Mass and Energy article, whose first two installments were completed last week.  If you’ve read the first two, skip down past Figure 5 to the section entitled “Where We Are So Far”.  The third installment summarizes what’s been explained about energy, momentum and mass, introduces the concept of the mass of a system of two or more objects, and then goes on to illustrate all of the issues in a very famous system: a Higgs particle decaying to two photons (particles of light), as viewed by three different observers.

More articles providing a bit of additional side information, and others addressing more subtle questions for which the Mass and Energy article was a prerequisite, are coming soon.

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON April 4, 2012

On Monday, during the concluding session of the SEARCH Workshop on Large Hadron Collider [LHC] physics (see also here for a second post), and at the start of the panel discussion involving a group of six theorists, Michael Peskin, professor of theoretical particle physics at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center [and my Ph.D. advisor] opened the panel with a few powerpoint slides.  He entitled them: “My Advice in Four Slogans” — the advice in question being aimed at experimentalists at ATLAS and CMS (the two general-purpose experiments at the LHC) as to how they ought best to search for new phenomena at the LHC in 2012, and beyond. Since I agree strongly with his points (as I believe most LHC theory experts do), I thought I’d tell you those four slogans and explain what they mean, at least to me. [I’m told the panel discussion will be posted online soon.]

1. No Boson Left Behind

There is a tendency in the LHC experimental community to assume that the new particles that we are looking for are heavy — heavier than any we’ve ever produced before. However, it is equally possible that there are unknown particles that are rather lightweight, but have evaded detection because they interact very weakly with the particles that we already know about, and in particular very weakly with the quarks and antiquarks and gluons that make up the proton.

Peskin’s advice is thus a warning: don’t just rush ahead to look for the heavy particles; remember the lightweight but hard-to-find particles you may have missed.

The word “boson” here is a minor point, I think. All particles are either fermions or bosons; I’d personally say that Peskin’s slogan applies to certain fermions too.

2. Exclude Triangles Not Points

The meaning of this slogan is a less obscure than the slogan itself.  Its general message is this: if one is looking for signs of a new hypothetical particle which

  • is produced mostly or always in particle-antiparticle pairs, and
  • can decay in multiple ways,

one has to remember to search for collisions where the particle decays one way and the antiparticle decays a different way; the probability for this to occur can be high.  Most LHC searches have so far been aimed at those cases where both particle and anti-particle decay in the same way.  This approach can in some cases be quite inefficient.   In fact, to search efficiently, one must combine all the different search strategies.

Now what does this have to do with triangles and points?  If you’d like to know, jump to the very end of this post, where I explain the example that motivated this wording of the slogan.  For those not interested in those technical details, let’s go to the next slogan.

3. Higgs Implies Higgs in BSM

[The Standard Model is the set of equations used to predict the behavior of all the known particles and forces, along with the simplest possible type of Higgs particle (the Standard Model Higgs.) Any other phenomenon is by definition Beyond the Standard Model: BSM.]

 [And yes, one may think of the LHC as a machine for converting theorists’ B(SM) speculations into (BS)M speculations.]

One of the main goals of the LHC is to find evidence of one or more types of Higgs particles that may be found in nature.  There are two main phases to this search, Phase 1 being the search for the “Standard Model Higgs”, and Phase 2 depending on the result of Phase 1.  You can read more about this here.

Peskin’s point is that the Higgs particle may itself be a beacon, signalling new phenomena not predicted by the Standard Model. It is common in many BSM theories that there are new ways of producing the Higgs particle, typically in decays of as-yet-unknown heavy particles. Some of the resulting phenomena may be quite easy to discover, if one simply remembers to look!

Think what a coup it would be to discover not only the Higgs particle but also an unexpected way of making it! Two Nobel prize-winning discoveries for the price of one!!

Another equally important way to read this slogan (and I’m not sure why Peskin didn’t mention it — maybe it was too obvious, and indeed every panel member said something about this during the following discussion) is that everything about the Higgs particle needs to be studied in very great detail. Most BSM theories predict that the Higgs particle will behave differently from what is predicted in the Standard Model, possibly in subtle ways, possibly in dramatic ways. Either its production mechanisms or its decay rates, or both, may easily be altered. So we should not assume that a Higgs particle that looks at first like a Standard Model Higgs actually is a Standard Model Higgs. (I’ve written about this here, here and here.)  Even a particle that looks very much like a Standard Model Higgs may offer, through precise measurements, the first opportunity to dethrone the Standard Model.

4. BSM Hides Beneath Top

At the Tevatron, the LHC’s predecessor,  top quark/anti-quark pairs were first discovered, but were rather rare. But the LHC has so much energy per collision that it has no trouble producing these particles. ATLAS and CMS have each witnessed about 800,000 top quark/anti-quark pairs so far.

Of course, this is great news, because the huge amount of LHC data on top quarks from 2011 allowed measurements of the top quark’s properties that are far more precise than we had previously. (I wrote about this here.) But there’s a drawback. Certain types of new phenomena that might be present in nature may be very hard to recognize, because the rare collisions that contain them look too similar to the common collisions that contain a top quark/anti-quark pair.

Peskin’s message is that the LHC experimenters need to do very precise measurements of all the data from collisions that appear to contain the debris from top quarks, just in case it’s a little bit different from what the Standard Model predicts.

A classic example of this problem involves the search for a supersymmetric partner of a top quark, the “top squark”. Unlike the t’ quark that I described a couple of slogans back, which would be produced with a fairly high rate and would be relatively easy to notice, top squarks would be produced with a rate that is several times smaller. [Technically, this has to do with the fact that the t’ would have spin-1/2 and the top squark would have spin 0.] Unfortunately, if the mass of the top squark is not very different from the mass of the top quark, then collisions that produce top squarks may look very similar indeed to ones that produce top quarks, and it may be a big struggle to separate them in the data. The only way to do it is to work hard — to make very precise measurements and perhaps better calculations that can allow one to tell the subtle differences between a pile of data that contains both top quark/anti-quark pairs and top squark/anti-squark pairs, and a pile of data that contains no squarks at all.

Following up on slogan #2: An example with a triangle.

Ok, now let’s see why the second slogan has something to do with triangles.

One type of particle that has been widely hypothesized over the years is a heavy version of the top quark, often given the unimaginative name of “top-prime.” For short, top is written t, so top-prime is written t’. The t’ may decay in various possible ways. I won’t list all of them, but three important ones that show up in many speculative theories are

  • t’ → W particle + bottom quark   (t’ → Wb)
  • t’ → Z particle + top quark      (t’ → Zt)
  • t’ → Higgs particle + top quark    (t’ → ht)

But we don’t know how often t’ quarks decay to Wb, or to Zt, or to ht; that’s something we’ll have to measure. [Let’s call the probability that a t’ decays to Wb “P1”, and similarly define P2 and P3 for Zt and ht].

Of course we have to look for the darn thing first; maybe there is no t’. Unfortunately, how we should look for it depends on P1, P2, and P3, which we don’t know. For instance, if P1 is much larger than P2 and P3, then we should look for collisions that show signs of producing a t’ quark and a t‘ antiquark decaying as t’ → W+ b and t‘ → W– b. Or if P2 is much larger than P1 and P3, we should look for t’ → Zt and t‘ → Z t.

Peskin's triangle for a t' quark; at each vertex the probabilty for the decay labeling the vertex is 100%, while at dead center all three decays are equally probable. One must search in a way that is sensitive to all the possibilities.

Peskin has drawn this problem of three unknown probabilities, whose sum is 1, as a triangle.  The three vertices of the triangle, labeled by Wb, Zt and ht, represent three extreme cases: P1=1 and P2=P3=0; P2=1 and P1=P3=0; and P3=1, P1=P2=0. Each point inside this triangle represents different possible non-zero values for P1, P2 and P3 (with P1+P2+P3 assumed to be 1.)  The center of the triangle is P1=P2=P3=1/3.

Peskin’s point is that if the experiments only look for collisions where both quark and antiquark decay in the same way

  • t’ → W+ b and t‘ → W– b;
  • t’ → Zt and t‘ → Z t;
  • t’ → ht and t‘ → h t;

which is what they’ve done so far, then they’ll only be sensitive to the cases for which P1 is by far the largest, P2 is by far the largest, or P3 is by far the largest — the regions near the vertices of the triangle.  But we know a number of very reasonable theories with P1=1/2 and P2=P3=1/4 — a point deep inside the triangle.  So the experimenters are not yet looking efficiently for this case.  Peskin is saying that to cover the whole triangle, one has add three more searches, for

  • t’ → W+ b and t‘ → Z t, or t’ → W–  b and t’ → Zt;
  • t’ → W+ b and t‘ → h t, or t‘ → W– b  and t’ → ht;
  • t’ → Zt and t‘ → h t, or t’ → ht or t‘ → Z t;

so as to cover that case (and more generally, the whole triangle) efficiently. Moreover, no one search is very effective; one has to combine them all six searches together.

His logic is quite general.  If you have a particle that decays in four different ways, the same logic applies but for a tetrahedron, and you need ten searches; if two different ways, it’s a line segment, and you need three searches.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON March 22, 2012

This weekend I am fortunate to be participating in a very interesting workshop on Large Hadron Collider [LHC] physics, held at the University of Maryland. Called the “SEARCH Workshop“, it was organized by three theoretical particle physicists, Raman Sundrum (University of Maryland), Patrick Meade (SUNY Stony Brook) and Michele Papucci (Lawrence Berekely Laboratory), and they’ve brought together many theoreticians and experimentalists of all stripes from within the Big Tent of LHC physics. With the exception of a panel discussion at the very end, all of the talks are experimental, from ATLAS and CMS. We’re hearing about all of the major searches that ATLAS and CMS have done at the LHC —- starting yesterday with searches for Higgs particles, heavier partners of the top quark and bottom quark, and several variants of supersymmetry — and there’s lots of time for detailed discussion.

I can’t possibly review everything being shown in the talks — ATLAS and CMS have done a huge number of analyses. But I’ll point out a couple that caught my eye that I haven’t specifically talked about in past posts (which include ones here, here, here, here, and here.) (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON March 18, 2012

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