Of Particular Significance

Author: Matt Strassler

Take a ball of loosely aggregated rock and ice, the nucleus of a comet, fresh from the distant reaches of the solar system.  Throw it past the sun, really fast, but so close that the sun takes up a large fraction of the sky.  What’s going to happen?  The answer: nobody knows for sure.  Yesterday we actually got to see this experiment carried out by nature.  And what happened?  After all the photographs and other data, nobody knows for sure.  Comet ISON dimmed sharply and virtually disappeared, then, in part, reappeared [see the SOHO satellite’s latest photo below, showing a medium-bright comet-like smudge receding from the sun, which is blacked out to protect the camera.]  What is its future, and how bright will it be in the sky when it starts to be potentially visible at dawn in a day or two?  Nobody knows for sure.

[Note Added — Now we know: the comet did not survive, and the bright spot that appeared shortly after closest approach to the sun appears to have been all debris, without a cometary “core”, or nucleus, to produce the additional dust and gas to maintain the comet’s appearance.  Farewell, ISON!  Click here to see the video of the comet’s pass by the sun, its brief flare after passage, and the ensuing fade-out.]

I could not possibly express this better than was done last night in a terrific post by Karl Battams, who has been blogging for NASA’s Comet ISON Observing Campaign. He playfully calls ISON “Schroedinger’s Comet”, in honor of Schroedinger’s Cat, referring to a famous and conceptually puzzling thought-experiment of Erwin Schroedinger, in which a cat is (in a sense) put in a quantum state in which it is neither/both alive nor/and dead. Linking the comet and the cat is a matter of poetic metaphor, not scientific analogy, but the metaphor is a pretty one.

Battams’ post beautifully captures the slightly giddy mindset of a scientist in the midst of intellectual chaos, one whose ideas, expectations and understanding are currently strewn about the solar system. He brings to you the experience of being flooded with data and being humbled by it… a moment simultaneously exciting and frustrating, when scientists know they’re about to learn something important, but right now they haven’t the faintest idea what going on.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 29, 2013

Comet ISON, a pristine chunk of rock and ice from the extreme edges of the solar system, is making its first visit to the vicinity of the Earth and the Sun. And what a trip!

Today, in a few hours, at 1:45 in the afternoon on the U.S. east coast, the comet will pass exceptionally close to the Sun — much, much closer to the Sun than the Earth or even the planet Mercury. At its closest, the distance from the comet to the Sun’s center will be only 2.5 times larger than the distance from the surface of the Sun to its center.  To say it another way, the radius of the Sun is about 700,000 kilometers (430,000 miles) and the comet’s closest approach will be 1,200,000 kilometers (730,000 miles) above the Sun’s surface, or 1,900,000 kilometers (1,160,000 miles) from its center.

This will be a very fiery place for an icy object to find itself!! A comet may or may not survive such a close approach; its central core (or “nucleus”, an agglomeration of rock and ice, about the size of a big mountain on Earth) may fragment if the heat radiating from the sun sufficiently vaporizes and weakens the core. If it does survive, and perhaps even if it fragments, we may begin to see it in the sky in a couple of days, just before sunrise. And if we’re very lucky, it will be spectacular.  [Note Added (updated): It appears we are unlucky this time.  Indications are now strong that Comet ISON’s nucleus (mostly) did not survive its close approach to the sun, and began falling apart just before or shortly after this post went on-line.  You can see evidence of this in a video from SOHO’s close-up camera. Whether the remnants of its dust tail might be visible for a few days isn’t clear to me (or probably to anyone) yet.  We can now see that some fragment of the nucleus appears to remain, but the comet is a shadow of its former self.  We’ll know soon how visible it will be.  [Unfortunately it appears that was visible was all dust, and the comet is just debris now; it will not be visible at all.]]

Over the first few days of December, the comet will dim, but it will also move away from the sun and from the brightest light of dawn, and so it will also become easier to see. Try to look for it in the coming week!   My current amateur’s guess (to be updated when I know) is that its remnant dust trail will spread out and dim very rapidly; you should not wait too long if you want to try to see it.

For the moment, you can’t see the comet by eye; it is way too close to the incredibly bright light of the sun. The only way to observe the comet right now is via satellites. The close approach is best watched through the camera of SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite). There’s a recent movie here from SOHO that shows the comet has brightened very rapidly in the last 24 hours. [The sun lies at the center of the image, drawn as a white circle, and is shaded from SOHO’s camera by a shield that forms a larger black dot in the center of the image.] The bright star Arcturus sits at the lower left of the image, and the comet is [was, this morning,] much brighter than that! Its maximum brightness may eventually approach that of the brighter planets, Jupiter and even perhaps Venus. Click here for the latest SOHO image, and here for the latest closeup image (which as of writing doesn’t show the comet yet.)  A recent image is below.

ISON1430
Comet C/2012 S1 ISON from the NASA SOHO spacecraft on November 28th as it approached the sun.
[Image credit: NRL/NASA]
Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 28, 2013

Congratulations to my friend and colleague Sean Carroll, blogger at Preposterous Universe!  For his book, The Particle at the End of the Universe, about the theoretical idea and experimental discovery of the Higgs field and its particle (the Higgs `boson‘), he has won the 2013 Royal Society Winton Prize!  Not the 3 million that you get for being a famous string or field theorist, or the few hundred thousand that you get for inventing the [Anderson]-(Brout-Englert)-Higgs-(Guralnik-Kibble-Hagen) mechanism, but 25,000 pounds sterling will cover expenses for a few months.  And more importantly, the recognition is well-deserved.  Well done, Sean!

For those who don’t know of him, Sean is a very fine scientist, an expert on the early and current universe, among other things, as well as a very skilled and engaging writer and speaker… and very importantly, he maintains very high standards for accuracy and clarity.  I recommend him highly!

Sean and I were interviewed on a Virtually Speaking Science on-line radio show in February (you can listen to it here) and will be appearing again in early December.  (By the way, I also appeared on this show when the hunt for the Higgs was still on…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 25, 2013

Today I’m looking for insights from readers on two issues that were nagging me over the weekend.

The first issue has to do with the Fukushima nuclear accident and subsequent radiation fears, which I first brought up on this blog last week.   I’ve been thinking about how to write articles that explain radioactivity and radiation in rather plain language, and about what we know is dangerous and what we know is not.  One of the challenges is to confront the extreme irrationality of people’s fear of radioactivity.  I’d like to hear my readers’ opinions of where this fear really comes from.  One explanation of this fear that you’ll commonly read is that “radioactivity is scary because you can’t see or smell or feel it”.  But that makes no sense; you can’t see, smell, or feel viruses either, or low levels of chemicals, so why aren’t people equally afraid of those things?  Especially since the average person is far more at risk of getting cancer or other potentially deadly diseases from viruses (such as papilloma) or from chemicals (asbestos, benzene, etc.) then from radioactivity, despite all the atmospheric nuclear tests in the 1950s and 1960s and the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear plant accidents.  So I don’t think this explanation is correct; there are plenty of invisible scary things in the world, and people’s fears are totally out of proportion to the true risks.  I have my own suspicions as to the real causes, but I am wondering what my readers think.

The second issue is more technical. Comet ISON, dubbed, as is typical of our sensationalist age, “comet of the century” before it has even become easily visible [and it might still be a dud, or it might be the best of the year or even the last twenty years; but of the century? check back in 2099!]) is approaching the sun.  There is indeed the tentative possibility, if it survives its very close encounter with the sun on November 28th, that it will give us a spectacular early morning display in December.  In preparation, I’m wanting to read more details about the properties of cometary tails, which are generated by the physics of particles and fields (photons, ions, magnetic fields, momentum conservation, etc.).  [Here’s a nice video of ISON’s tail and its interaction with the solar wind, the stream of charged particles emanating from the sun; also visible to its upper right is Comet Encke, which by chance is also near the sun.  By the way you can also see, watching Encke, that its tail is not a trail; it does not point along its direction of motion but instead points away from the sun.] But I’ve been unable to find anything online other than vague descriptions with no technical information, or references to books or review articles from several decades ago.  Do any of my readers know of a roughly up-to-date technical introduction to the physics of comets’ tails?

Thanks!

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 25, 2013

Some readers may remember that back in May, as I discussed in some detail, the IceCube experiment reported a new and exciting observation — possibly the first discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos: neutrinos, with energies 5 – 50 times higher than those of the protons at the Large Hadron Collider, created in outer space and arriving on earth.  This is to be contrasted with most neutrinos measured at IceCube and other previous similar experiments, which have lower energy and are created in the earth’s atmosphere by other types of particles hitting atoms in the air (see Figure 4 of this article.)   Specifically, where the IceCube folks expected to measure 10 candidate events from non-neutrino backgrounds, they instead measured 28.  Well, these results were reported at a conference in May, but only now is the paper appearing in published form, in the journal Science.

Here’s the IceCube press release about the publication of their paper, http://icecube.wisc.edu/news/view/171 .  All indications are that there are few changes since May, except for greater confidence in the result; the numbers quoted all match the ones that I wrote about back in the spring.  If there is anything strikingly different from May, I haven’t yet noticed it; please let me know if you’re aware of something.

For those of you who missed this back in May, I wrote a few relevant posts back then that you may find useful.

Meanwhile, you may also remember that there was a big Gamma Ray Burst [GRB] observed in April — the most energetic ever measured.  [We were hoping that IceCube would observe neutrinos from that GRB, but it did not.] Science is also publishing papers about that event, and how measurements of it are making people rethink their understanding of how GRBs occur.  Once I’ve learned more about this, I’ll post something more detailed.

Curiously, both of these stories are appearing in the press with big headlines, as though they are new news… but if they sound familiar, it’s because they are indeed six months old.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 22, 2013

For general readership

Evolution really happens in nature: we know this from the frightening rate at which bacterial species, faced with our most powerful antibiotics, manage to find ways around them.

More precisely, a certain amount of natural variability and accidental mutations within bacterial populations, and the huge rate at which bacteria reproduce themselves (a single bacterium at dawn may be billions by sunset), essentially assures that eventually, simply by accident, and relatively soon, a bacterium will be “born” that is immune to any particular antibiotic. And then this bacterium, the sole survivor of the onslaught to which its siblings have succumbed, and reproducing by dividing into “children” that also can survive, soon gives rise to a subspecies of its own, against which this antibiotic is useless.  By using the antibiotic again and again, killing off the bacteria from other subspecies, we eventually assure that this unbeatable subspecies becomes more and more common compared to its cousins.

In recent years, bacteria have appeared for which no antibiotic treatment exists.  The rate of the evolution of these bacteria has outpaced the rate at which biologists and medical researchers can find and develop new antibiotic treatments.  The Center for Disease Control is extremely worried about this, and its director Tom Frieden just published a blog post that everyone should read.  Here’s one quotation:

To help draw attention to CRE and other top antibiotic-resistance threats, the Center for Disease Control recently published its first report on the current antibiotic resistance threat to the U.S. The report estimates that each year in the United States, at least 2 million people become infected with bacteria resistant to antibiotics, and at least 23,000 people die as a result.

Note this extraordinary statement: every year, 1 in 150 people in the United States will be infected with bacteria that are resistant to a classic antibiotic every year, and 1% of them will die, some fraction of them because of this resistance.  Let’s put that in perspective: assuming there were no increase in the number of bacteria or improvements in treatment over the next 50 years, your chance of being infected by such a bacterium during that time is roughly 25%.  In short, this will very likely happen to someone you know in the next few years, and someone in your family in coming decades.  (It’s already happened to someone in my extended family.)  And of course, since they are hard to fight, these bacteria are likely to spread, so the rate of infection will become worse if nothing is done.

Here’s another quotation: 

Every doctor must commit to use antibiotics only when needed, and to use antibiotics for only as long as they are needed. Patients need to understand that “more” drugs does not equal “better” drugs. The right treatment is the best treatment – and that isn’t antibiotics for every infection or every illness.

Now why is he making this point so strongly? Let me end by quoting from the preamble to the report he mentions:

The use of antibiotics is the single most important factor leading to antibiotic resistance around the world. Antibiotics are among the most commonly prescribed drugs used in human medicine. However, up to 50% of all the antibiotics prescribed for people are not needed or are not optimally effective as prescribed. Antibiotics are also commonly used in food animals to prevent, control, and treat disease, and to promote the growth of food-producing animals. The use of antibiotics for promoting growth is not necessary,
and the practice should be phased out.

I hope everyone pays close attention to Frieden’s post and its message, and spreads the word among the people that they know.  Doing so may someday help save the life of someone you care about, or even your own.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 21, 2013

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