Of Particular Significance

Blog – Of Particular Significance

In the next couple of days I hope to update a post I put up a short time ago, one that, as of today, 8/29/11, still holds true.  The issue that I addressed in that post was : What does the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) currently have to say about Supersymmetry?  I took a slightly polemical point of view, but you can look at the links in the post to longer, more pedagogical articles to see where the point of view comes from.

The problem with trying to answer a question like this one — What do LHC results imply for Theory X — is that it is ill-posed. An experiment searches for a phenomenon — not a theory. If a theory always predicts a certain phenomenon, then an experiment can search for that phenomenon, and, in finding it or not, give a definitive thumbs-up or -down to the theory. But often a theory has many versions, and although it will have a general set of predictions — supersymmetry, for instance, predicts superpartner particles — its details can look quite different to an experiment, depending on the version. [For instance, in supersymmetry, whether or not one sees the classic supersymmetry signature depends on the masses of the superpartner particles, on whether there are extra types of particles that are not required by the theory but might just be there anyway, etc.] So any given experimental result is just one important but incomplete piece of information, one that constrains some versions of the theory but not others. Typically, to entirely rule out a general theory like supersymmetry requires a large number of experimental searches for many different phenomena.

Conversely, though, many different theories may predict the same phenomenon. So an experiment that looks for but fails to find a certain phenomenon doesn’t just rule out just one version of one theory. It typically rules out several versions of many different types of theories.

And if it does find that phenomenon, it does not tell you which of those different types of theories it comes from. Remember that, when the LHC makes its first discovery! You’ll likely see claims from physicists in the press about what the discovery means that aren’t really merited by the data. (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 29, 2011

Ok, hurricane over — and I was in a spot where it happens to have been particularly mild. Power was never lost. South of here, north of here, east of here, it is a different story. Nature deals in chance.

As I prepare some more particle physics posts, it seems a good moment to ask a more general scientific question: What are the chances that there would be a rare significant east-coast earthquake and a relatively rare New England hurricane affecting the New York area within five days of each other? Or more generally: What are the chances of two rare natural disasters affecting the same place within such a short time?

You will notice, if you are reading carefully, that the second question is not at all a rephrasing of the first. The two queries are utterly different, and they have entirely different answers. (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 28, 2011

UPDATE: LHCb reports precise measurement of B_s meson decaying to  J/Psi meson + Phi meson.  Agrees beautifully with the Standard Model.  Fantastic measurement!!  But disappointing — no sign of any new phenomena.

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Well, the hurricane now arriving on the east coast of the United States has forced significant changes in many people’s plans, mine included.  Certain big chores simply had to get done in preparation for the storm’s arrival. Consequently the post that I had hoped to write analyzing the results from Mumbai on the searches for the Higgs particle, and for more speculative phenomena, simply hasn’t been composed yet. But since Irene the Giant is expected to impact the New York area for about 24 hours, starting late tomorrow afternoon, I should have plenty of time to catch up while it’s on its way in.  Whether I’ll be able to finish the post, or post it when it’s finished, will depend on when the power goes out, and for how long.

[p.s. apologies to those who have asked questions that have gone unanswered; I’ll get to those during the storm as well.]

Meanwhile, there are  some “flavor physics” results being presented in Mumbai right now. Flavor specifically refers here to the behavior of bottom quarks and of charm quarks, as they behave inside of hadrons, and as they decay to other quarks lighter than themselves. These behaviors are predicted in considerable detail by the Standard Model of particle physics, and it is rather easy for some new phenomena, involving some new heavy particles, to come along and screw up the Standard Model prediction. In fact there are several measurements, from various experiments including the Tevatron and also the so-called B-factories [which make lots and lots of bottom quarks and anti-quarks] that don’t currently agree with the Standard Model very well.   (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 27, 2011

Real Time Updates at end of post:

(all times Mumbai)

  • 12:15: update 1  (top quarks seem to behave mostly as expected)
  • 13:00: update 2 (more ways in which top quarks behave as expected)
  • 13:15 update 3 (general thoughts on the lack of new top-quark surprises)
  • 14:15 one huge summary of everything new at LHC begins — oof!
  • 14:45-15:0o a summary of the huge summary — for what it is worth
  • 15:30 Tevatron: only a few updates from Grenoble, nothing too striking.
  • 20:00 GRRR: still waiting for the organizers to post today’s slides so I can review them and understand the details!!!

No blockbusters today!  But way too much, way too fast.  Will have to look at the slides carefully once they finally post them, and then probably will still have to dig into the details of the new results to learn anything really interesting.

—————

Ok, getting ready for an interesting day.  On the morning agenda: measurements of things we think we know — W and Z particles, photons, and top quarks — looking for surprises.   In the case of the top quark, we have a very good reason to be looking closely — the “Forward-Backward Asymmetry” for top-quark production, which should be small in the Standard Model, is measured at the Tevatron, by both CDF and D0,  to be moderately large.   This suggests a possibility that new physics is affecting top quarks.  So although the LHC experiments can’t make exactly the same measurement as the Tevatron to check for the same discrepancy, it is very natural for them to look for something else odd about the top quark in their data.   So far nothing strange has shown up, but … perhaps today?

After that, in the afternoon, we’ll have results on searches for various speculative ideas, including supersymmetry, extra dimensions, and presumably a few other things.  Won’t know the details until the talks are given… but I expect we’ll see quite a few new results.  With so many results, the chances are that at least one of them will get people talking… although there is a tendency for exciting results to not be shown for quite a while, for reasons detailed in this article.   If there’s anything really exciting in the data, we might not see if for a few more months, until the data set doubles again.

——-

12:15 — Albert De Roeck from CMS reviews lots of top quark measurements from Tevatron and LHC — but focuses on precision measurements of production rates.  Flies through everything involving possible new physics.  Advances on many fronts, but plots zipped by, no time to really look at them and understand whether there’s anything funny in them.  Only a few new results for this conference.   Most interesting technically, at first glance, is search for heavy particle with 1 – 1.5 TeV mass decaying to top quark and top anti-quark, using new “boosted-particle” techniques.  Searches for various types of fourth-generation quarks (usually called top-prime or bottom-prime) putting lower limits on their masses in the 400-450 GeV range.  Nothing new on the top quark forward-backward asymmetry, the one discrepancy from the Standard Model.  Nothing obviously to get excited about since the Grenoble conference… but need to look at the actual slides (not yet posted.)

13:00 — Yuji Takeuchi reviews other types of measurements from Tevatron and LHC involving the top quark (mass, charge, details of decays, spin effects) — nothing violating Standard Model expectations.  ATLAS has a nice new measurement of W helicity in top quark decay, and another on the correlation of the spins of the top quark and top anti-quark when they are produced together.

13:15 — I should say that today’s results on top quarks, while not surprising after the Grenoble conference last month showed almost nothing new with the top quark, are in general somewhat disappointing.  The Tevatron measurement of the top-quark forward-backward asymmetry, which appears even now to be in conflict with the Standard Model, has been our best hope so far for something indicating a new phenomenon involving the top quark.  And we have many reasons to expect the top quark might not behave as predicted — it is by far the heaviest quark, and the reason for its very large mass is not known.  Equivalently, it is the particle which feels the Higgs field more strongly than any other particle known.   So there are many speculative theories of new physics in which the top quark plays a special role, which tends to be reflected in some novel effect on the top quark’s properties.  Yet except for the forward-backward asymmetry, nothing else odd about the top quark has shown up yet to provide more evidence that something is amiss with the Standard Model.  Granted, these are still early days at the LHC, and the various measurements from ATLAS and CMS will improve and proliferate with more data and more time… so there will be plenty more to watch for over the next 18 months…

14:15 Here we go — one talk on everything the LHC has done on new physics.  Henri Bachacou presents.

14:45 Ok, this was only a moderate update of what we saw in more detail in Grenoble.  There were a few new results, but not that many we hadn’t seen before.  And it all went by far too fast, with far too few details, for any thoughtful analysis.  But with only 30 minutes, what could the speaker do?  He should have had double the time.  (Why weren’t the LHC speakers more numerous and given more time at this conference??!!)

The talk itself was very nice, the results presented were spectacular, and the speaker was very careful to make precise statements, which I always appreciate.  Basically: Standard Supersymmetry with a large jets-plus-missing-energy signal is excluded for squarks and gluinos up to the 1 TeV range — putting such models in serious trouble.  The same is true for the version of supersymmetry known as “minimal gauge mediation” with that produce 2 photons in every event (and some new and interesting limits on the case where often there is only one photon per event.)  Limits on heavy Z-like and W-like particles are in the 1.8 and 2.3 TeV range, as are particles decaying to two photons.  Technicolor particles decaying to WZ are excluded up to 380 GeV.  No sign of any excess in events with two charged leptons or two charged anti-leptons.  Nothing in the classic searches for invisible sectors and/or extra dimensions; no deviations at high energy in the distribution with energy of charged lepton-antilepton or two-photon events.   No huge signals of lots of quarks or leptons produced at once, as expected from black holes.  And certain powerful searches for long-lived particles and slowly-moving particles came up empty.  So — the experiments have done a fantastic job!  Unfortunately, nothing obvious has popped out.

BUT — as the speaker emphasized, there are many classes of searches that have not been done.  Many variants of supersymmetry would not have shown up in current searches (my perspective on that is here) and will have to be looked for in future analyses with different strategies.  Also, he emphasized, with the large data sets expected by fall, entirely new methods of analysis will become possible.  So for the next round of conferences, expect results involving ultra-high-energy leptons (with 1 TeV or so of energy), “boosted” objects (a  technique for finding high-energy W and Z particles and top quarks, and perhaps Higgs  and other new particles), and searches for a number of less obvious signatures of new physics.

I’m going to have to look at all of this again once they post the slides, and frankly the slides were almost useless anyway, given how much material had to be squeezed in such a short talk.  Really, if one wants to see anything more subtle than the bottom line, what one has to do is read the corresponding papers and notes — and that will be my goal for the next couple of weeks.

15:30 In contrast to the LHC speaker, the Tevatron speaker Alberto Annovi got to spend most of his time on a relatively small number of results. A significant fraction of the time was spent on the widely reported (one might say widely over-reported) W-plus-two-jets excess that CDF sees and D0 does not.  I remain unconvinced.  Nothing else too dramatic that we didn’t see in Grenoble.

8/23/11

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 22, 2011

Restructured the post: My preliminary discussion is first, the updates from the talks are now at the end.  The take-away message from the LHC talks:

The most interesting point here is that ATLAS and CMS [crudely] taken together exclude all regions for the Standard Model Higgs particle except

  • below 145 GeV,
  • the range 288-296 GeV, and
  • above 464 GeV.

Since precision measurements of other quantities in nature indirectly make the region above 464 GeV very unlikely, and even that small window around 290 is probably excluded when the two experimental results are combined properly, we are probably down to the region 115 — 145 GeV for the Standard Model Higgs.

Not much change in the Higgs hint at 140… some details have shifted, but they went by too fast.  It needs a closer look. But don’t expect any real news.  [Update: the significance of the hint has gone down a bit — but is this due just to the new data or have the analyses changed?  Also, from the past month’s data, CMS saw no additional two-lepton/two-antilepton events in that mass range  (at Grenoble they reported two events at 142 GeV.)]

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8/22/11 10:30 Mumbai time

The search for the Higgs particle — a ripple in the Higgs field, the field which is on average non-zero and provides the mass for the known elementary particles — continues at the Tevatron and Large Hadron Collider. We will probably get some new information within an hour or so.

Right now, the focus is on the search for the simplest possible Higgs particle — the one that goes by the name of Standard Model Higgs and arises from the simplest possible type of Higgs field. There are searches also going on for somewhat more complicated possibilities — Higgs particles that decay in unusual ways, or several types of Higgs particles, etc.   But the first task of the experiments is to find the Standard Model Higgs particle, if it is there in nature, or rule it out, forcing us to look for something more complex.

Last month, we heard (a) that the Standard Model Higgs is probably not heavy (its mass-energy [E=m c-squared] probably does not lie in the range above 150 GeV and below about 450, though there are still some gaps in the coverage), and (b) there is a hint of a Standard Model Higgs particle around 140 GeV, although this could also be a more complicated non-standard Higgs particle at masses somewhat lower (perhaps 115-130 GeV.)

But as I emphasized in this detailed article, there are two types of searches for the Standard Model Higgs particle: some simple ones, easy to interpret, that take a while, and difficult ones that require less data but are subject to more subtleties. That hint at 140 relies on a very difficult technique, and so there is some question as to whether it might be an artifact of some type.

We will be watching today at the conference in Mumbai to see the updates on both the easy and the difficult searches. If the experiments really do update their results from the Grenoble conference by including more data, we should see (1) a firmer exclusion of a heavy Standard Model Higgs, except — if it is actually there! or if there is a statistical fluke — at one or two points where there will be a slight hint of a Higgs; (2) an update of the easier search strategies, which could be quite interesting indeed, as there may be enough data now for them to be useful; and (3) probably very little new on the more difficult search strategy, because there are probably internal studies being done to check the methodology, and they may not be complete. The hints seen in the more difficult strategies will still be there, but I suspect they will continue for now to rest on somewhat uncertain ground.

————————————————–

8/22/11 10:45 Mumbai time

[Right now we have an introductory theory talk by Abdelhak Djouadi, from France.  Why the theorist gets 35 minutes and the ATLAS and CMS experimental talks — the real data! — get only 20 minutes each is beyond me.  The ATLAS talk will be given by Aleandro Nisati from Italy (with whom I had the pleasure to work briefly), and the CMS talk by Vivek Sharma from the U.S.A.  And the Tevatron talk, combining CDF and D0 data, will be given by Marco Verzocchi, also from the U.S.A.]

Update 1: 11:39 ATLAS talk — Excellent!  the full data set is being used for the two-lepton/two-antilepton search!  [Nothing special in two-photon signature.]  11:53 EXACTLY as was predicted above… nice improvement in exclusion in heavy mass region, except for a few gaps; no real change in the Higgs hint below 150.  I think at 95%: excluded 146-232, 256-282, 296-464 GeV.  Striking: 99% exclusion of Standard Model Higgs between 160-220 and 300-420 GeV.

Update 2: 12:07 CMS talk (not quite all the recorded data I think) [in two-photon signature, some excess at 140 GeV, but I think ATLAS did not see one there; presumably just statistical fluctuation] 12:20 And AGAIN, exactly as predicted from CMS.

The most interesting point here is that ATLAS and CMS [crudely] taken together exclude all regions except below 145 GeV, 288-296 GeV, and above 464 GeV.

12:51 The Tevatron (CDF and D0 experiments) reports exclusion of the Standard Model Higgs in these ranges

  • Observed: 100-109 and 156-177 GeV
  • Expected: 100-108 and 148-181 GeV

Since observed is weaker than expected at the low end of the upper range, that means that there is a tiny hint of a Higgs below 150 or so, so this result isn’t in conflict with the LHC hint at around 140 GeV.  But we wouldn’t expect Tevatron to be as sensitive as the LHC experiments to a 140 GeV Higgs, if there is one.

Most interesting result from Tevatron: both CDF and D0 see an excess of events consistent with a supersymmetric Higgs particle in the mass range 120-150 GeV, in a production mechanism that is absent in the Standard Model.  However this is a tough measurement and it is hard to know whether to trust this… and the excesses are not that large.   (Experts: this is b-quark plus Higgs, where Higgs decays to b-quark and b-antiquark.  Note b-quark-plus-Higgs where Higgs decays to tau-lepton and tau-antilepton is not observed at the corresponding expected rate, so this Higgs would have to be exotic in at least one other way if this were a real signal.)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 22, 2011

The Lepton-Photon 2011 conference in Mumbai is just getting ready to start.  Unlike the EuroPhysics conference in Grenoble last month, the number of experimental talks is small — and the talks are short.   So it’s all going to go by very fast.  We’ll get our full dose of Higgs searches at the  Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Tevatron this morning (Monday), and searches for other types of novel phenomena (including top quark physics, supersymmetry, extra dimensions, etc.) tomorrow.  And then the topics will switch to other types of experiments (neutrinos, dark matter, collisions of heavy ions, and cosmic rays), until Saturday.

Although in principle the amount of data collected at the LHC has roughly doubled between Grenoble and Mumbai — a great achievement — you should not assume that the LHC experimentalists have had sufficient time to analyze it all.   In fact many studies presented in Grenoble did not use anywhere near the full amount of data that they had back then — I expect we will see many of those studies updated in Mumbai, but probably only for half the current data.  So there will be only a few results, I suspect, that use all the data.  Some of the Higgs studies might be among them, so that will be quite interesting.  We are likely, if Higgs results with more data are presented, to see more of the heavy-Higgs region excluded by the data than we saw at Grenoble.  We are unlikely to see anything clearly pointing toward discovery at this point — the hints will probably shift but remain hints for now.  I think we would probably need to double the data again first before things become clear.  But that will happen soon enough; by the end of the fall, perhaps?

Stay tuned for more news today….

8/21/11

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 21, 2011

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