Of Particular Significance

Tag: press

According to the BBC, it was a heavy blow.  According to a member of the LHCb experiment quoted in the article, it put the theory “in the hospital.”  The reality?  Nobody even suffered a scratch.

On Monday I wrote about a new measurement by the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] of a rare process, reported at the HCP 2012 conference in Kyoto (a link to the talks can be found at this link), in which a B_s meson decays to a muon and an anti-muon (click here for more details of the physics process.)  It’s a very important measurement, definitely!  But whilelistening to theorist Gino Isidori’s talk in which he briefly discussed this measurement, I was a little puzzled about an inconsistency between what LHCb had done and said in the past, and what they had done and were saying now, in particular as was reported/implied by the BBC.

When I chatted with him later, Isidori reminded me exactly what LHCb reported in March, and how it compares to what they report now.

  • March: LHCb reported that at most 4.5 per billion B_s mesons decay this way (at 95% confidence)
  • November: LHCb reports about 3.5 per billion B_s mesons decay this way, and at 95% confidence the rate is at least 1.1 per billion and at most 6.4 per billion.

Notice that the new measurement raises the upper limit on how often this process occurs.  This upward shift is not an indication of a problem; it’s probably just an ordinary statistical effect that arises from having small amounts of data.  But it makes the constraints from this measurement — on the many variants of supersymmetry, and on other theories — a little weaker, if anything.  Most of the supersymmetric (and other) models that would be constrained by this measurement lead to a higher rate than in the Standard Model (where it is predicted to be about 3.2 ± 0.3 per billion).  So a higher upper limit means fewer of these variants are excluded by the data.  All in all,  the constraints on supersymmetric (and other) models are little changed, and perhaps somewhat weaker than they were in March.  Isidori and his colleagues have worked this out, and I’ll try to get details from them next week.

No need to take my word for it, or even Isidori’s.  Professor Michelangelo Mangano of CERN, apparently having spoken independently to other experts, made exactly the same point on page 41 of his summary talk concluding the conference.  (By the way, it was a great talk, and I recommend that experts read it.) 

Well!  So much for the big BBC headline!  [Most likely the public will never learn about this; a news report describing more accurately what this really means for supersymmetry etc. probably will not appear at all on the BBC, and even if it does, it certainly won’t get a big attention-grabbing headline.   It’s sad that this inherent bias in media reporting ensures the public gets an unhealthy dose of incorrect scientific information and rarely gets the antidote.]

None of this at all diminishes LHCb’s accomplishment!  They’ve made a great measurement, for which they deserve big congratulations.  A round of applause, please!!  But let’s not overstate its immediate impact.  As the measurement becomes more precise, its impact will gradually become greater, and even more so when it is combined with similar measurements from ATLAS and CMS.

But meanwhile, there were powerful and truly new constraints on supersymmetry (and other theories) reported at this conference, and they came from ATLAS and CMS, in their searches for effects from superpartner (and other) particles.  I told you about a small number of these searches a couple of days ago (by the way, I learned meanwhile that CMS has a search that is similar to the one I mentioned from ATLAS  involving bottom quarks) and maybe I’ll point out a few others next week, if I have the energy.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 16, 2012

I’m always amused at how very reasonable remarks so often generate attacks from unreasonable people.  I wrote a perfectly ordinary post about what one does and doesn’t learn from LHCb’s important new measurement at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] (and in fact I overstated the significance of the result — more on that later), and somehow I touched off a mini-firestorm.  Well, that just indicates how essential it is to have calm people expressing sensible points of view.  When people become so politicized that they can’t distinguish propaganda from science, that’s not good.

Forget supersymmetry — because none of my remarks have anything to do with this theory in particular, and the theory doesn’t deserve the excessive attention it’s getting.  Take any theory: call it Theory X.  Extra dimensions; compositeness of quarks and leptons; non-commutative spacetime; grand unification; your-theory-here.  The idea behind theory X may be very clever, but as always, there are many variants of theory X, because an idea is almost never precise enough to permit a unique realization.  Each variant makes definite predictions, but keep in mind that detailed experimental predictions may very well differ greatly from variant to variant.

Now, here is a logical fact:  one of two options is true.

  • Option A: One variant of theory X is “correct” (its predictions agree with nature) while all other variants are “wrong” (disagree with nature)
  • Option B: All variants of theory X are wrong.

Nature is what it is; there are no other options (and this is not the place for a discussion about this basic scientific assumption, so pace, please, philosophers.). [More precisely about option A: the space of variants is continuous, so the correct statement is that an arbitrary small region in this space is correct; you can put in the correct calculus vocabulary as you like.  I’ll stick with the imprecise language for brevity.]

For either option, as more and more data is collected, more and more variants of theory X will become “dead” — excluded because of a disagreement with data.  Therefore — obviously! — a reduction in the number of live (i.e. unexcluded) models always takes place over time.  And this has absolutely no bearing on whether, at the end, all variants of X will be dead, or one (or perhaps several very similar ones) are still alive.

And thus it makes absolutely no sense to describe, as a “blow to theory X” — in particular, to the idea behind theory X — a measurement that excludes (“kills”) even a big fraction, but not virtually all, of the variants of theory X.  It’s certainly a blow to those variants; in fact, it is a fatal blow for them.  But it does nothing to distinguish between Option A and Option B.  It only tells us that if Option A is true, the variant of X that will be alive at the end is not among the ones that have just been killed.

This isn’t rocket science, folks.  It’s logic.  [Well – As a commenter points out, it’s  not “logic” in the strictest sense; but it is basic scientific reasoning.] And if we take theory X to be the Standard Model itself, I’ve just described its history. (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 14, 2012

One of the challenges of being a science journalist is conveying not only the content of a new scientific result but also the feel of what it means.  The prominent article in the BBC about the new measurement by the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC]  (reported yesterday at the HCP conference in Kyoto — I briefly described this result yesterday) could have been worse.  But it has a couple of real problems characterizing the implications of the new measurement, so I’d like to comment on it.

The measurement is of how often B_s mesons (hadrons containing a bottom quark and a strange anti-quark, or vice versa, along with many quark/anti-quark pairs and gluons) decay to a muon and an anti-muon.  This process (which I described last year — only about one in 300,000,000 B_s mesons decays this way) has three nice features:

Yesterday the LHCb experiment reported the evidence for this process, at a rate that is consistent (but see below) with the prediction of the Standard Model.

The worst thing about the BBC article is the headline, “Supersymmetry theory dealt a blow” (though that’s presumably the editor’s fault, as much as or more than the author’s) and the ensuing prose, “The finding deals a significant blow to the theory of physics known as supersymmetry.”  What’s wrong with it?  It’s certainly true that the measurement means that many variants of supersymmetry (of which there are a vast number) are now inconsistent with what we know about nature.  But what does it mean to say a theory has suffered a blow? and why supersymmetry?

First of all, whatever this new measurement means, there’s rather little scientific reason to single out supersymmetry.  The rough consistency of the measurement with the prediction of the Standard Model is a “blow” (see below) against a wide variety of speculative ideas that introduce new particles and forces.  It would be better simply to say that it is a blow for the Standard Model — the model to beat — and not against any speculative idea in particular.  Supersymmetry is by no means the only idea that is now more constrained than before.  The only reason to single it out is sociological — there are an especially large number of zealots who love supersymmetry and an equal number of zealots who hate it.

Now about the word “blow”.  New measurements usually don’t deal blows to ideas, or to a general theory like supersymmetry.  That’s just not what they do.  They might deal blows to individual physicists who might have a very particular idea of exactly which variant of the general idea might be present in nature; certain individuals are surely more disappointed than they were before yesterday.   But typically, great ideas are relatively flexible.  (There are exceptions — the discovery of a Higgs particle was a huge blow to the idea behind “technicolor” — but in my career I’ve seen very few.)  It is better to think of each new measurement as part of a process of cornering a great idea, not striking and injuring it — the way a person looking for treasure might gradually rule out possibilities for where it might be located.

Then there’s the LHCb scientist who is quoted as saying that “Supersymmetry may not be dead but these latest results have certainly put it into hospital”; well…  Aside from the fact that this isn’t accurate scientifically (as John Ellis points out at the end of the article), it’s just not a meaningful or helpful way to think about what’s going on at the LHC. (more…)

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POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 13, 2012

The huge Milner prizes for nine well-known scientists, and the controversy they generated, have motivated me to relate a story.  It happened during the theorist/experimentalist workshop that was held in early August (see also here) at the Perimeter Institute in Waterloo, Canada.  And it illuminates something that many scientists, science commentators and science journalists, as well as science fans in the public, seem to be unaware of, but ought to know.

Before I start, I want to make one thing clear.  I am by no means a flag waver for the string theory community; the theory’s been spectacularly over-hyped, and the community’s political control of high-energy physics in many U.S. physics departments has negatively impacted many scientific careers, including my own.  On the other hand, I am also not going to tell you that string theory, as a theory, is somehow evil incarnate; I have done a certain amount of string theory research, and not only have I learned a great deal from it that I could not have learned any other way, doing the research had a positive effect on my career.  So I feel it is unfortunate that string theory has been a political football, with two violent teams trying to kick the ball toward their opponents’ goal posts.   From my perspective, the game is irrational and preposterous, reasonable people were long ago refusing to play it, and it is high time the ball were grabbed by the referee and placed quietly in the middle of the field where it belongs.

My story takes place on the evening of Friday, August 3rd, following the second day of the workshop, which brought together theorists and CMS experimentalists for discussions concerning research strategies at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC].  (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 15, 2012

I highly recommend Steve Myers’ article http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/184802/are-jonah-lehrers-scientific-errors-worse-than-fabricating-quotes/

Why is it that when a scientist makes up scientific information, he or she is fired, but when a journalist or writer makes up scientific information, he or she is promoted and ends up making lots of money with a best-seller? And why is mis-quoting Bob Dylan so vastly worse than widely mis-representing and twisting facts, even making up facts, about science and putting some of them in a book?

That Jonah Lehrer put multiple mistakes and perhaps inventions into a book called “Imagine” is highly amusing.  And remember his naive article in the New Yorker that was billed as “Is There Something Wrong With The Scientific Method?” Well, “Is there something wrong with my science journalism?” might have been the real question.

Malcolm Gladwell described Lehrer (on the “Imagine” jacket cover) as “knowing more science than a lot of scientists.”   I am afraid this now in turn raises serious questions about Mr. Gladwell’s own knowledge and judgment.  The New Yorker also has big questions to answer; I don’t think you should be too quick to get your science journalism there.

Meanwhile, what was Fareed Zakaria thinking?  The famous writer believing that he could steal paragraphs from another living and famous writer and not be noticed?  Of course he believed it, he’d gotten away with it before in broad daylight, and most of us hadn’t heard about it.  Suspension?  No, promotion! Note Added 8/15: The last bit here has been called into question by a commenter, referring me to this link that claims that the accusations made against Zakaria in the above link were unfair.  It doesn’t change the fact that Zakaria did pilfer from Jill Lapore, as he has admitted to doing, and that I’ve lost my trust in his work.  And I remain dubious that it’s the first time he’s ever done this in his long career.

“You can fool all of the people some of the time, and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”

Regrettably, I myself had a post on this site that linked to one of Zakaria’s articles; I no longer have any reason to trust the man’s judgment and integrity, and so I have updated the post to mark it as suspect.  And I would suggest you ignore everything he writes in future.  Same with Lehrer, of course.

It seems highly unlikely that these deceptions were aberrations; apparently these people managed to make their way to the top partially by subterfuge. And people currently at the top are allowing young charlatans to rise to the top, or at least are unable to prevent their rise.  That is extremely distressing.

In physics, fortunately, getting to the top by ruse and swagger and charm and exaggeration remains extremely difficult to do (though examples do occur; one of my friends caught this guy because his plots looked weird) — because your colleagues, knowing you are human and that you can make mistakes, don’t assume that you’re right when you make a claim about something.  At some point along the way, before they rely on your work, they check it.  (That’s why it is so important that TWO experiments at the Large Hadron Collider have such strong and largely independent evidence for the existence of a Higgs-like particle.) Such standards may need to be applied a bit more widely in the world; we should be a lot less gullible, and require a much higher standard of proof from news organizations, psychology and medical studies, and books mistakenly filed in the non-fiction section, than we do.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON August 14, 2012

A distant topic, yet not distant at all. Science, as a process, creates trustworthy knowledge; it has proven this over and over, and much of our economy is based upon it. But scientists? As individuals, they are just as human as anyone else: they make mistakes, harbor biases, believe things without much evidence, overstate their cases, and do all sorts of problematic things. Some are a lot more reliable than others, and often the unreliable ones are the ones who take their scientific case to the media (the reliable ones often not seeing the need to do so). Consequently, media stories on science are on average somewhat less reliable than the ones scientists produce and read.

So when a brand new science story makes the headlines — say, the possibility of faster-than-light neutrinos from the OPERA experiment at the Grand Sasso laboratory (withdrawn before publication due to discovery of a technical problem), or the bacteria substituting arsenic for phosphorus as claimed by a group of scientists who first predicted the possibility and then claimed to find it (here’s the abstract of the published paper in Science magazine, and a popular New York Times article about it) — caution is advised.  [Cold fusion, anyone? Utah’s governing institutions should perhaps have been a bit more patient…]

Multiple arguments against the arsenic-incorporating bacterium result have been made from the beginning. Now two new papers (#1, #2) have hit Science magazine, and the press. Both argue (among other things) that the bacterium in question is still dependent on phosphorous and that there is no sign of arsenic in its DNA.

Which is all to say that reproducibility lies at the core of scientific research. It is the process of confirmation and cross-checking of a result that allows a media story that begins “Scientists say…” to be transformed into a textbook that begins “Science says…” When you read a story in the press, you should always look for the key indications that multiple and separate groups of scientists agree on the result — not necessarily that there is broad consensus, but at least that the scientists making the claim aren’t entirely out on their own.  [For the recent discovery of the Higgs particle, we have two different experiments making the claim.] If those indications are missing, I’d advise you to file the result under “unconfirmed,” and not to bet on it.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON July 10, 2012

Ever have the experience of feeling that no one is listening to you, and so, to make yourself heard, you yell really loudly? And then discover that one of the key people you were trying to reach is standing right behind you?

That’s a bit how I feel after my recent post about Tuesday’s article in the New York Times on the search for the Higgs particle at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC]. My readership is minuscule compared to Dennis Overbye’s, so I shouted. But Mr. Overbye, to my surprise, read the post. Clearly I could have made my points more gently, and for the unnecessary stridency of my tone, Mr. Overbye, I apologize.

I also believed the NY Times article contained an error, and said so. Mr. Overbye defended himself in a comment to my post, saying that the phrasing he chose was meant to imply the correct situation without going into too much detail. I accept this was his intent; I do understand that squeezing these complex ideas into very short articles is a huge challenge, one that he and his colleagues often do very effectively.

Still, in this case, the phrasing chosen could easily lead to an unfortunate and problematic misunderstanding in the wider public — negating the otherwise admirable features of the article. And the risk of causing this particular misunderstanding is the hot button issue on this website. I’ll explain why in a moment.

Before I go into detail, let me balance my negative comments, in the interest of fairness. As a commenter noted, Mr. Overbye carefully avoids referring to the Higgs particle (or “Higgs boson”, as most physicists call it [what’s a boson? just a particular type of particle — click here to read more]) as the “God particle”, a term invented purely to sell a book, and detested by most physicists I know. Thank you, Mr. Overbye, for setting a high standard here. And Mr. Overbye successfully evokes the current mood of extremely high excitement in the field — that 2012 is a very, very big year, in which huge questions bothering particle physicists for decades are finally coming to a head.

But what precisely are those questions? And why do I think it matters?

I do think it’s useful to look at why Mr. Overbye’s phrasing could be disturbing to some particle physicists. First off is the notion that the upcoming conference called ICHEP is “the boson’s last stand”.

In disagreeing with this statement, I am not (as some commenters thought) making a statement of theoretical prejudice. This has nothing to do with what I believe about nature, or what anyone else believes. I am making a simple logical point.

What is the “Standard Model”? It is the set of equations used by particle physicists to describe all known particles and forces at the LHC, along with the simplest possible Higgs particle. [Sometimes this is called the Minimal Standard Model.]

What the LHC experimenters are doing right now is an exhaustive search for this `simplest Higgs’. This search is nearing completion. (Caution: completion may not come at ICHEP. The limited data available so far means that ambiguities may still remain, due to statistical flukes. In that case we’ll have no choice but to wait for the end of 2012.) When the search is done, either a Higgs particle will have been found (perhaps a simple one, or perhaps a more complex one uncovered more or less by accident) or the simplest Higgs will have been ruled out.

Suppose indeed the simplest Higgs is definitively excluded by the data. Which of the following conclusions follows logically?

  • The simplest Higgs particle does not exist in nature.
  • The (Minimal) Standard Model is not a complete description of nature.
  • There is no Higgs particle in nature.

The first two conclusions are logically correct, as well as scientifically spectacular. The third would be even more spectacular, but does not follow. But in saying that ICHEP is “the boson’s last stand”, Overbye gives the strong impression that the third conclusion will follow.

What is actually having its last stand, now or soon, is the Standard Model, [or Minimal Standard Model if you prefer that name] and its simplest Higgs. Professor Higgs and the others — Brout, Englert, Guralnik, Hagen and Kibble — will be disappointed if the Higgs doesn’t show up in its simplest form, but will have no reason to give up hope.

Why is this such an important distinction? Because a non-expert reading the phrase “the boson’s last stand” might naturally conclude that if no Higgs particle discovery is announced at ICHEP, it’s all over… that we know there is no Higgs particle in nature, and the search for the Higgs is done. And the natural next question for many people will be: “ok, but then what do we need the LHC for?” And for others, “so you mean to tell me that theorists said for 50 years there’d be a Higgs particle, and we paid for this 9 billion dollar machine, and the Higgs isn’t there?!” Personally, I do not want to see the New York Times creating these sorts of very dangerous misunderstandings, at a time of severe economic crisis. (Anyone who thinks no dangers lurk here should consider the last two decades of history carefully.) And that’s why I reacted so strongly to Mr. Overbye’s article.

According to Mr. Overbye, he was trying to convey this distinction. I realize these things are very hard to do, but, with respect, I think in this case it wasn’t done clearly. And that’s partly because he added the statement that “theorists will have to go back to the drawing boards” — which implies that theorists will all be so astonished and befuddled if the Higgs doesn’t turn up at ICHEP that they’ll all have to go back to square one.

Will the demise of the (Minimal) Standard Model and its simplest Higgs send theorists back to the drawing board? No. Theorists have not been idle over the past decades. They’ve been at the drawing board the whole time; it’s their job not to be satisfied with the conventional wisdom. It’s not the drawing board but the library and the desk drawer and the computer archive to which they will turn. And in those places you will find dozens and dozens of sensible alternatives to the simplest Higgs, many of which are harder to find than the simplest one and will still be worth searching for, well beyond 2012. And you will find numerous papers, by famous and less famous scientists, showing how nature can have a Higgs field but no Higgs particle; this situation (usually omitted by science journalists, because it is admittedly very hard to explain in a few words) always comes with other scientific opportunities for the LHC. [I’ve written about this here, if you want to learn more; see section 6 — the article is out of date in its details but not in its scientific points.] [Experts: by “Higgs field” I specifically mean any effective field whose would-be Nambu-Goldstone bosons provide the longitudinal components of the W and Z particles. You may prefer a different terminology, but I hope you do not disagree with the science. The example I have in mind is technicolor, and its various cousins.]

If late this decade there’s still no Higgs particle and still nothing else unexpected in the LHC data, then you’ll find most of us at the drawing board.

I should note that a few commenters stated their opinion that if the simplest Higgs, or something like it, doesn’t show up in the current search, then they will be sure there is no Higgs particle in nature, because “nobody believes” these alternatives to the simplest Higgs. First, their opinion is one of theoretical prejudice, not logic; and if scientists’ beliefs were always right, experiments would be a lot less important than they are. And second, the point is not that anyone believes a particular alternative; I don’t “believe” in any specific one myself. The point is that there are so many, and so easy to create. It would be foolhardy to dismiss the possibility that nature might hide the Higgs from our initial searches.

Also, there is an unfortunate public perception (partly due to physicists cutting corners in public statements) that theoretical physicists said that “there is a Higgs particle in nature” and that the experimental physicists built the LHC to find it. This is too glib. As I have written in more detail elsewhere, what theorists said (collectively) is that “there is a Higgs field in nature” — a Higgs particle being likely but not a certainty. The LHC was built to help us understand the Higgs field, and was designed to handle both the cases where a Higgs particle would be found early on, and the cases where it would not be found early, or at all. In short: particle physicists have come to this point fully prepared.

And we need the news media to convey this. Having provided several billion dollars for this machine, taxpayers and politicians around the world rightly expect particle physicists to do a first-rate job with the money. We have a reputation to uphold. If the media, directly or indirectly, leads the public to view us unfairly as bewildered, stunned, unprepared, or otherwise incompetent, this would be very damaging. And so I feel that cannot sit idly by if a New York Times article, even unintentionally, could imply to many readers that not finding the Higgs by ICHEP would mean that nobody in the field would have any idea what to do next.

I myself write to explain science, mainly particle physics, to the public, and I know that science journalists everywhere have a very tough job. Mr. Overbye, in his position at the NY Times, can have huge influence on scientific understanding and science policy in the public, and consequently he has responsibilities that make his job even tougher. His contribution to public excitement about the current moment in particle physics is more than welcome. But isn’t there some way, in a few words, also to convey the decades of careful preparation by the particle physics community, not just for the conventional wisdom but also for the broad range of alternatives? And not just for this critical moment, but for the decade of LHC studies that lies ahead?

For even if we see strong evidence of a Higgs-like particle at ICHEP, the correct understanding of that particle — in particular, determining whether it is or isn’t a `simplest Higgs’ — may take many years. And we’re prepared for that.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON June 25, 2012

[UPDATE: in the comments below, Dennis Overbye (the article’s author) explains what his wording was intended to imply, and that his article contains no error, just wording that was perhaps a little too simple.  I have also replied, with a request for much greater clarity in future, and explaining why I feel this is such an important issue.]

The New York Times has an article about the search for the Higgs particle! (Using the scientific jargon of physicists, it calls this particle the Higgs “boson”. If you want to know what a boson is, click here.)

Although a lot of the article is pretty good (though I can’t vouch for its accuracy in describing what’s going on inside the experiments) it does contain a HUGE conceptual and factual error that is vastly misleading.  [According to the author Dennis Overbye, this is not an error, but phraseology that is perhaps not entirely clear; see his comment below.] Here’s what it says about the Higgs particle:

“The new data will show whether [the hint in the December data] was a fluke or whether they are really on the road to discovering the long-lost [Higgs] boson, physicists say. They are racing to make a deadline to report the results at the International Conference on High Energy Physics, or Ichep, in Melbourne, Australia, starting July 4.

This, all agree, is the boson’s last stand. If the December signal fades, it probably means that the Higgs boson, at least as physicists have envisioned it for the past 40 years, does not exist, and that theorists have to go back to their drawing boards.”

This is misinformation — completely wrong — and in the interest of its readers, I do hope the Times would publish a correction.  [Again, I refer you to Overbye’s comment.]

This is NOT “the boson’s last stand”, and NOBODY agrees that it is the case.  What everyone agrees (with one caveat about heavier Higgs particles that actually haven’t been ruled out yet) is that it is the last stand of the Standard Model Higgs particle.   The Standard Model Higgs particle is only the SIMPLEST possible type of Higgs particle. Read about this form of Higgs particle here, if you like.

Let me say that again.  There is a big difference between ruling out the Standard Model Higgs particle and ruling out all possible forms of the Higgs particle.

Unfortunately, I’ve previously had to criticize the New York Times on precisely this point … back in August 2011.

Not finding the Standard Model Higgs particle — in Phase 1 of the Higgs search — just means that Phase 2 of the Higgs search has to involve a wider set of search strategies.  The two phases of the Higgs search was one of the main topics of my Cosmic Variance guest-post article and of this slightly more detailed article (both articles a bit out of date now as far as the data, but the basic point about the two phases still holds).  And in fact I pointed out in a related article, linking to some scientific lectures I gave on the topic, that it will take ten years to be confident there is no Higgs particle of any type.  I’m not telling you anything radical; ask any theorist in the field who has worked on Higgs physics and they will tell you the same thing.

So to say that “theorists will have to go back to their drawing boards” if the Higgs does not show up by December 2012 is badly mistaken.  There are hundreds of theory papers, going back decades, on versions of the Higgs particle (or particles) that would not show up by December 2012.   Here are some examples of such papers by well-known authors: http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0009158 ; http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0608310 ; http://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1316; there are plenty of such papers from the 1990s and even the 1980s.  Heck, I even wrote some myself.

One other minor error, caused by out-of-date information: the discrepancy between the masses of the possible Higgs signal seen at ATLAS and at CMS (which made the statistical combination of the two data sets unstable to small shifts) did indeed shift when the CMS data was reanalyzed in March.  The shift went in the “right direction”, eliminating the discrepancy and increasing confidence in the consistency of the ATLAS and CMS results.  On the other hand, the significance of the signal seen at ATLAS and CMS went down in March, too.  A complicated story; but these details won’t matter in the long run.

Of course, all of this may be moot, if more evidence for the Higgs shows up at the ICHEP conference in July.  But please, NY Times, get your facts straight on this very important point, which lies at the heart of the LHC program!  No discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 absolutely will not mean that we know there is no Higgs particle at all.   It just means we would give up on the simplest version of the Higgs (which would be great news!), and that the Higgs search would move on to Phase 2.

Simplified diagram of how the Higgs search proceeds at the LHC; 2012 will be the transition point between Phase 1 and possible branches of Phase 2.
Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON June 21, 2012

First, a couple of things you might like to read:

  • There was a long-overdue article from the New York Times as to how, after eight years of cuts from the Bush administration during good economic times, followed by additional inevitable cuts during the Great Recession, formerly world-leading scientific research efforts in the United States are on the verge of collapse, risking far more than the scientific research itself.  The situation is far more dire, in my opinion, than the tone of the article implies; the brain drain of talent leaving the US is frightening and well underway, and the problems are by no means limited to particle physics and astrophysics.
  • The article that I described last month by Moni Bidin et al. that claimed (loudly, in the press) that there was little evidence for dark matter in the Sun’s interstellar neighborhood (but far from the center of the Milky Way galaxy) has been discredited by one of the world’s leading astrophysicists, working with a younger collaborator. The claim (made without a big press release) of Jo Bovy and Scott Tremaine, from the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, is that one of the assumptions on which the Moni Bidin et al. argument was based is inconsistent with data and therefore wrong, ruining the argument. Bovy and Tremaine have replaced this assumption with a different one that is consistent with data, and they conclude, in contradiction to Moni Bidin et al., that the corrected argument leads to the conclusion that there is indeed dark matter in the vicinity — roughly the amount one would expect from other considerations. In short, the Moni Bidin argument, once corrected, actually leads to more evidence in favor of the existence of dark matter! A short description of the situation is given on the Resonaances blog.

Second: I’m starting to think about a new section for this website.

Particle physics, quantum mechanics, and all the strange-sounding stuff that many physicists study are often thought of as esoteric, abstract, and irrelevant to ordinary life. But in fact our world is directly impacted, in many different ways, by quarks and photons and quantum uncertainty and the like; these things are not abstract at all. To make this point more accessible, a website like this one needs a good introductory section to help beginners make their way into the world of particle physics. So I’m going to be constructing this section over the coming months. Feedback from readers as to whether the material is readable and sufficiently introductory will be very valuable, so please feel free to offer your comments.

One of my first tasks is to talk about the architecture of the universe — how its parts are formed from smaller parts, on down to the smallest objects we know about so far. Of course there are many other introductions to this subject already on the web (and a few of them are even correct!) What I hope will make my presentation a little different is the inclusion of some insights into not only what we know about the structure of the universe but also how we know it, and additionally some comments on how our lives are impacted by each level of detail in the architectural hierarchy.

The first phase of this process will be to look at how ordinary matter that we are made from and surrounded by is constructed from the basic ingredients of electrons, quarks (and anti-quarks and gluons), and the strong nuclear, electromagnetic and gravitational forces. The figure below gives a preview of what’s coming (and you can click the figure for a larger version.)

The hierarchical architecture of ordinary matter. At the lowest known level are found electrons (e), quarks (u,d,s) and anti-quarks, along with force particles such as gluons. Up and down quarks, gluons and pairs of quarks and antiquarks make up the proton and neutron (the “nucleons”), and are held together by the strong nuclear force; a residual effect of that force holds the protons and neutrons together in atomic nuclei, of which there are a few hundred. The electromagnetic force allows electrons to attach themselves to nuclei, forming a hundred or so chemically distinct types of atoms. A residual effect of the electromagnetic force then binds the atoms together into a gigantic zoo of molecules, out of which the vast complexity of ordinary materials — the air, the sea, the rocks underfoot, and the immense diversity of life — are formed. Meanwhile gravity crushes the earth’s rock into a rough sphere and keeps the air, water, and living things from floating off into outer space.  The rough sizes of the objects appearing at each level of structure are indicated at right.
Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON May 25, 2012

CBS NEWS, today: “A never-before-seen subatomic particle has popped into existence inside the world’s largest atom smasher, bringing physicists a step closer to unraveling the mystery of how matter is put together in the universe.”

Overall, this is not a bad article — but that last bit is propaganda.  Maybe physicists made a nano-step (“nano” = one billionth).  We knew this particle — a composite object made from known particles — would be there; we just didn’t know its details.  To suggest this is a step toward a breakthrough is just silliness.  Of course all new information proves useful eventually for something, but… really!

And the first part?  Less exciting than it sounds (though a very nice bit of research!)  Here’s the link to my post about this from Friday, explaining that the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider has reported very strong evidence for a new composite object — a hadron, a member of a particular subclass called a `baryon’ —  made from a single bottom (or `beauty’ — or just `b’) quark and from other known particles.

The reporter tells the usual white lie:

Baryons are particles made of three quarks (the building blocks of the protons and neutrons that populate the nuclei of atoms). Beauty baryons are baryons that contain at least one beauty quark (also known as a bottom quark). The new specimen is a particular type of excited beauty baryon called Xi(b)*, pronounced “csai-bee-star.”

A better description of baryons (including protons) is that they are made from three quarks, many gluons, and many additional pairs of quarks and anti-quarks.  The three excess quarks are the ones being referred to in the above paragraph.  See my article on what protons are and Friday’s post on this new one, which shows a sketch that gives better intuition about what protons and Xi(b)*s look like.

[Sometimes white lies get you into a lot of trouble later.  The fact that protons have gluons and anti-quarks in them is crucial to understanding how the Large Hadron Collider does its thing.]

The reporter gets this part right:

The Xi(b)* particle had been predicted by a physics theory called quantum chromodynamics, which predicts how quarks bind together to form heavy particles, but had never before been observed.

“It was expected to be more or less where it was found,” [Vincenzo] Chiochia said. “Not all of those heavy states have been discovered, so you have to look for all those particles. It may well be that the theory is not complete. In this particular case it was expected, but we have to keep looking for things that are unexpected.”

Well.  I don’t know about that, Dr. Chiochia.  As a quantum field theorist, I would agree that “quantum chromodynamics” (which does more than what the reporter writes — it is the set of equations that describes and predicts all of the interactions of quarks, gluons and anti-quarks of all types) might indeed be turn out to be incomplete.  But if you really want to look for places where it might fail, this is an especially bad place to look!  This composite particle itself may be new, but the forces and particles required to make this object have already been very well-studied in other contexts.  (Nevertheless, congratulations on nice work!)

Oh, and by the way, Wind Farms Do Not Cause Global Warming.  They may cause some local mixing of warmer air just above the ground at night down to the surface near the wind farm itself; this does not increase the overall temperature of the planet.  Read headlines (and articles) very carefully.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/no-wind-farms-are-not-causing-global-warming/2012/04/30/gIQAMl2GsT_blog.html

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON May 1, 2012

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