Of Particular Significance

Blog – Of Particular Significance

Wow. Big headline on the BBC website, saying that a new particle has been discovered at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC].

The “wow” is about the size of the headline. Not about the particle.

There are particles, and there are particles. This isn’t a new elementary particle. It isn’t a new object built from new and unknown elementary particles. It’s yet another hadron — a particle built from well-known and well-understood quarks, antiquarks and gluons — of which we know hundreds, including the neutron and proton. In fact, this particular hadron is a new member of a well-known family, and was fully expected. (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON December 22, 2011

Are the current hints of a signal in the search for the Standard Model Higgs particle (currently underway at the Large Hadron Collider experiments ATLAS and CMS) really reflective of a Higgs particle?  Should one be confident that they are, or not?  I’ve written an article that presents strong  arguments on both sides.  Where you go from there is up to you, of course.  Personally I tend to be conservative about these things, so if there’s a strong argument not to be confident, that’s how I lean. Others lean the other way — that’s fine with me, as long as they use a legitimate argument to get to that point of view.

Clearly if experienced scientists aren’t showing much agreement yet, a layperson can’t be too certain about what is going on.  Don’t worry — over time, with more data in 2012, the disagreements about the current hints will die away, and you’ll hear a more and more confident consensus emerge as we get more evidence.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON December 19, 2011

[This post is now out of date; for a discussion of the data showing strong arguments in favor of confidence, and against confidence, that the excesses in the data reflect the presence of a new particle, click here.]

At 2:30 CERN time today, there was a 90 minute discussion in a room packed with over 100 people, including many experimentalists from the LHC experiments ATLAS and CMS and particle theorists like myself.   (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON December 15, 2011

Well, yesterday’s update on the search at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] for the Standard Model Higgs particle (the simplest possible type of Higgs particle) is past. It left us, as was widely expected, with an ambiguous situation about which, for now, intelligent people can (and do) disagree (compare my reaction with this one).  But it also left us with great hope for 2012 that all these ambiguities will be resolved, and that Phase 1 of the Higgs search will come to a definite close next year, with

  1. the discovery of a Standard Model Higgs particle (or a look-alike) between 115 and 127  GeV [with best bets at 125 or so] ; or
  2. confidence that there is no Standard Model Higgs, and the launch of the search for many other types of Higgs particles; or
  3. the discovery of something else along the way.

There’s still a lot more to say about yesterday’s results. Is what ATLAS and CMS are detecting a real signal, or not, and what might make us nervous or confident about it? What are the implications if it really is a signal of a new particle? How confident can we be that it is a Higgs particle? How much evidence is there that it is of Standard Model type? I will write an article about these issues soon. But there’s still a tremendous amount of work left (even for a theorist) to do to help plan for LHC in 2012, and to help assure analysis of the fall 2011 data is thorough.  During the rest of my stay at CERN I will be working hard on that!

However, I would be deeply remiss if I did not follow up on yesterday’s flurry of Higgs discussion by stepping back and reminding you what has happened here.

It has been an astonishing year. I find it challenging to remember how I thought about particle physics twelve months ago, after all these changes in our understanding brought about by the new results from the LHC.  This is especially true as far as the Higgs search, which has unambiguously excluded a huge part of the mass range for Standard Model (and also many non-Standard Model) Higgs particles — with implications that I am still coming to grips with. And this reshaping of the landscape of particle physics is due in large part to the extraordinary efforts of three groups of people:

  • The accelerator physics team at the LHC, the often unsung heroes who designed, built, and now operate this wonderful and incredibly reliable machine, overcoming obstacle after obstacle to bring its collision rate higher and higher, well beyond expectations for 2011, and delivering 150 times as much data as was produced last year, thereby making the achievements announced yesterday possible…
  • The experimental collaborations, the large teams of physicists who collectively built and now operate the giant and complex collision detectors, which work extraordinarily well, typically close to or even beyond their design parameters; who manage to cope with the incredibly challenging conditions at the LHC to obtain high quality data; and who have shown great ingenuity in finding ways to extract more information from that data — in particular, improving the methods for the Higgs particle search so much that they have  significantly exceeded original expectations for what one could learn from the amount of data currently available…
  • The theoretical physicists that you never hear about — the ones who work and sweat tirelessly on very difficult technical problems: combining high-precision theory and data carefully to provide a detailed understanding of the structure of the proton; or coming up with clever ways to calculate, with higher and higher precision, the rates for Higgs particle production, and for other processes that obscure the Higgs particle’s signals;  without these researchers the measurements that we heard about yesterday would have had much larger theoretical uncertainties and could not have led to such powerful conclusions…

I have nothing to say except:  Wow.  Wow.  You’re amazing.  I feel so privileged to be a witness to what you’ve done.

The rest of us — other particle physicists, scientists everywhere, and the public — owe you a long and deafening round of applause. May history always remember what you achieved this year.

And we also wish you the very best in 2012; may it be even more successful and historic than 2011.

The search by the ATLAS and CMS experiments for the Standard Model Higgs particle made astonishing progress in 2011, leaving all eyes on the tiny remaining gap (115.5 to about 128 GeV) and the hint of a signal around 125 GeV.

 

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON December 14, 2011

Ok, having heard the talks, had a lot of conversations with colleagues, and looked a bit more carefully at the plots from today’s talks at CERN, I have a few revised comments, somewhat more optimistic than my initial reaction, with more details to follow.

Exclusion in new regions:

  1. The CMS experiment has excluded a new chunk of the Higgs mass range, from 127 or 129 GeV (depending on how aggressive you want to be) to about 600 (previously the two experiments together excluded 141 to 476.  [Look to CMS for the official numbers]
  2. ATLAS did not change their result for high mass but excludes the lightweight Higgs down to 131.
  3. Both experiments are seeing effects in the 120-130 GeV range that are preventing them from excluding as much as they would have expected to do on average.

Hints from ATLAS:

  1. ATLAS, using Higgs –> 2 photons and Higgs –> ZZ –> two leptons and two antileptons, shows an excess at about 126 GeV, of a local significance of 3.6 sigma (but only 2.3 sigma with most conservative form of the look elsewhere effect; the more complete number lies somewhere between).
  2. If there were a Standard Model Higgs particle at 125-126 GeV, the expected local significance would be 2.4 sigma.  The signal seen is therefore compatible with a Higgs signal of this type.
  3. It is still compatible with a large fluctuation in the background.

Hints from CMS:

  1. CMS, using 5 different measurements — Higgs –> 2 photons, Higgs –> ZZ –> two leptons and two antileptons, Higgs –> WW –> lepton, antilepton, neutrino, antinuetrino, Higgs –> taus AND Higgs –> bottom quark/antiquark pairs — claims  an excess at about 120 GeV and another at 124 GeVwith a local significance of 2.6 sigma (but only 1.9  sigma with the most conservative form of the look elsewhere effect; the better number lies somewhere between).
  2. If there were a Standard Model Higgs particle at 125-126 GeV, the expected local significance would be 2.6 sigma.  The signal seen is therefore very compatible with a Higgs signal of this type.
  3. The claim CMS wants to make is that the ratios of the excesses in the 5 different channels is quite consistent with a Higgs signal at around 124 GeV.  I am not sure I believe this argument, but it is certainly a legitimate one to make.  To believe it, I would need a much more careful explanation of how the three more subtle analyses were done.
  4. It is still quite compatible with a moderate fluctuation in the background.

Are they compatible?

  • There are some weird features in the data that could be due to low statistics, but roughly speaking the answer seems to be that the hints at ATLAS and CMS are reasonably compatible with each other.

Given this,

  • What we saw today is probably compatible with a Standard Model-like Higgs at about 125 GeV.
  • What we saw today is also probably compatible with a large but not extraordinary fluctuation in the backgrounds, perhaps combined with a subtle technical problem in one or another analysis.
  • And the only way to find out which of these two is the truth is to gather a lot more data in 2012.  Period.
Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON December 13, 2011

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