Are the current hints of a signal in the search for the Standard Model Higgs particle (currently underway at the Large Hadron Collider experiments ATLAS and CMS) really reflective of a Higgs particle? Should one be confident that they are, or not? I’ve written an article that presents strong arguments on both sides. Where you go from there is up to you, of course. Personally I tend to be conservative about these things, so if there’s a strong argument not to be confident, that’s how I lean. Others lean the other way — that’s fine with me, as long as they use a legitimate argument to get to that point of view.
Clearly if experienced scientists aren’t showing much agreement yet, a layperson can’t be too certain about what is going on. Don’t worry — over time, with more data in 2012, the disagreements about the current hints will die away, and you’ll hear a more and more confident consensus emerge as we get more evidence.