In fact, it’s already here. Oh yes, it seems that 2024 may not just be the year of a terrific solar eclipse and spectacular outbursts of northern lights (and maybe, just maybe, a nova.) In morning twilight, if you live in the right latitudes, an ever-brightening comet can apparently be spotted right now. I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m hoping to get a chance.
Nothing in cometary life is guaranteed; comets can fall apart unexpectedly, or fail to brighten as expected. So far, though, Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is looking promising; its tail may soon be longer than its name.
To help make the text easier to follow, I’ve put the 50+ figures, the 6 tables, and the glossary on-line. You might, for instance, choose to have them open on your phone for easy reference while you’re listening. (The endnotes are also there too, although my understanding is that Mr. Grove won’t be mentioning them as he reads, so you may need the text to make them useful.)
There are additional resources for readers already up on this website, supplementing the book, and more are coming soon, so please make use of them. Also feel free to ask me questions if you find yourself confused — and please don’t be embarrassed to do so, because the universe is confusing… even to physicists. No question is too simple; in fact, the simple ones (what is empty space? what’s a particle? why don’t we feel the Earth’s motion?) are often the hardest to answer.
written a new article for New Scientist about the familiar-sounding words that we use in physics (such as “particle”) and how they can easily mislead the unwary;
2ND UPDATE: Auroras are indeed being observed. (I myself am a bit too far south and skies are hazy, making the moonlight blinding; but I am reading reports from northern Europe.)
UPDATE: Something has happened at the ACE satellite around 2300 UTC (0100 Europe time, 7 pm New York time. See the plot added to the bottom of this post.
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Still waiting for a possible outbreak of auroras (northern/southern lights) tonight; a tremendous blast from the Sun, launched from a sunspot two days ago, is believed likely to make a glancing impact on the Earth, and to do so within the next 12 hours or so. That means a possibility of bright northern lights tonight if you’re north of, say, New York City’s latitude.
BUT always keep in mind that forecasting auroras is part science, part art, part luck. Our chances are decent, but the forecast can always be wrong.
As far as timing, the best way to monitor what’s going on, I’ve found, is to use https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind and look for sudden activity in multiple data channels. If that happens, then the ACE satellite (about a million miles away) has detected a sudden change in the solar wind, and a geomagnetic storm is likely to start at Earth within an hour or so.
Whether you will see auroras or not during the storm depends on how powerful it is, which determines how far from the poles the auroras will reach and how bright they will be. While the forecast is for a strong storm, we’ll just have to see…
At 2300 UTC (about one hour before this posting) you can see jumps occurred in many channels below. That means that the solar storm may begin right around now (0000 UTC, 8 pm New York Time)
