Of Particular Significance

Blog – Of Particular Significance

The HCP [Hadron Collider Physics] 2012 conference in Kyoto is underway.  After opening talks laying out the field’s future, the main topics today have been

  • Collisions of heavy ions (specifically of lead or gold nuclei) and generic proton-proton collisions
  • Processes involving “heavy flavor” (meaning in this case the properties of hadrons containing bottom and charm quarks.)

Although there were a number of interesting new results from several experiments, today’s highlight so far has been a presentation on a new measurement by the LHCb experiment, one of the special-purpose experiments at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC], of a rare decay of a B_s meson to a muon and an antimuon.  I described this process in some detail, and claims and counterclaims about it, in the first portion of an article last year; the details of the measurements are out of date, but the physics process is, of course, the same.

Today the LHCb experiment, for the first time, announced evidence for the existence of this process, using their data collected in both 2011 and 2012.  In the Standard Model (the equations that describe the known particles and forces), it is predicted that about one in about 300,000,000 B_s mesons (hadrons containing a bottom quark and a strange anti-quark, or vice versa) should decay in this fashion.  The measurement that LHCb has made is completely consistent with this prediction.

[In detail, the Standard Model predicts (3.54 ± 0.30) × 10-9 {including mixing effects} and LHCb measures (3.2 +1.5[−1.2])× 10-9.]  The measurement is at the level of 3.5 standard deviations — evidence, but not yet a convincing observation.  LHCb excludes a rate of zero at much better than 95% confidence; their 95% confidence lower bound on the process is 1.1 × 10-9.]

The detailed implications of this result will take a while to work through, but the general implication is easy to state: the Standard Model has survived another test.  And the constraints from LHC data on speculative ideas that predict particles and forces beyond those of the Standard Model have become tighter.  Many variants of these speculative ideas would have affected this process, and the more precisely the data matches the Standard Model prediction, the more of these variants are excluded by the data.

Note Added: CMS says they a very good chance of being able to confirm LHCb’s result using the full 2012 data; not sure what ATLAS says about their chances.

2nd Note Added: Gino Isidori, in his talk on the theoretical perspective on heavy flavor physics, emphasized that a future high-precision measurement of this process will be very important; it can be predicted with high precision, and interesting variants of speculative ideas often have effects on its rate that are between 10% and 100%.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 12, 2012

This week I’ve escaped the power outages, the gasoline shortages, the cold and the snow of my home town, and have been visiting warm and humid Hong Kong.  Today I gave a colloquium (same one, more or less, as I gave last month at the University of Toronto, on-line here) at the physics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK).  CUHK is one of three universities in Hong Kong that are banding together to try to establish a particle physics presence at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and beyond.

I’m in Asia because of next week’s Hadron Collider Physics Symposium (HCP 2012), a conference that will be held in Kyoto, Japan.  Among other things, many new measurements using 2012 data from the LHC will be presented at this conference, along with updates of the measurements of the properties of the new Higgs-like particle whose discovery was announced in July.  Stay tuned for posts on the new LHC results next week.

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 9, 2012

The greater New York region, having been broken into disconnected and damaged pieces by Hurricane/Nor’Easter Sandy, is still reassembling itself.  Every day sees improvements to electrical grids and mass transit and delivery of goods, though there have been many hard lessons about insufficient preparations.  Here’s an impressive challenge: over a million people and thousands of businesses lack electrical power; therefore many of them are running generators, to stay warm, keep food cold, and so forth; but the generators require fuel, typically diesel or gasoline; and so there is a greater need for fuel than usual; but a significant fraction of the petrol stations can’t pump fuel for their customers… because they lack electrical power and don’t have their own generators. These and other nasty surprises of post-storm recovery should be widely noted by policy makers and the public everywhere, especially in places that, like New York when I was a child, rarely experience disasters.

Unfortunately, another storm (a simple nor’easter) is now forecast for mid-week. While much weaker than the last, it is potentially still a dangerous situation for a region whose defenses are still being repaired.  As was the case with Sandy, the new storm was already signaled a week in advance by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting), the current European weather-forecasting computer program or “model”.  Confidence in the prediction has been growing, but still, predictions so far in advance do change.  Also one must keep in mind that a shift in the storm’s track of one or two hundred miles or so could very much change its impact, so the consequences of this storm, even if it occurs, are still very uncertain.  But again we are reminded, as we were last week, that weather forecasting has dramatically improved compared to thirty years ago; the possibility of a significant storm can now often be noted a week in advance.

What is this European ECMWF model? what is its competitor, the US-based GFS (Global Forecast System) model? And what about the other models that also get used?   All of these are computer programs for forecasting the weather; all of them use the same basic weather data as their starting point, and all have the same basic physics of weather built into their computer programs.  So what makes them different, and more or less reliable than one another?  I asked one of my commenters, Dan D., about this after my last post.  Here’s what he said, along with my best (and hopefully accurate) attempts at translation for less experienced readers: (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON November 5, 2012

My neighborhood of New York City may remain without power for a few more days, but fortunately visible signs of damage are limited — none of the widespread destruction found along the immediate coast of the city and of nearby communities, where the sea rose and swallowed up land that had not seen salt water in many decades, even centuries.  Many trees are down, and countless houses and businesses are wiped out by the sea’s wrath, even entire beach communities. The numbers of lost homes are surely in the thousands, if not more, with 100 houses alone destroyed in a runaway fire in the neighborhood of Breezy Point, cut off from firefighters by the storm’s high water.

Unfortunately, many people along the coast, lulled into complacency by the fact that last year’s Tropical Storm (formerly Hurricane) Irene was a bit less furious along the coast than was forecast, decided not to evacuate. Unfortunately indeed, because the forecast for Hurricane Sandy was worse than for Irene, and this time, there was no lucky break to make the reality of the storm significantly less severe than the worst-case prediction.  I myself know of households who decided to evacuate at the last minute and almost didn’t make it out alive, and others who rode out the storm and found themselves in considerable danger. That so many people remained in harm’s way required “first responders”, as they are termed here, mainly members of the police and fire departments, to make many rescues, quite a few of which wouldn’t have been necessary had people heeded the warnings. For risking their lives to save so many others, the first responders are widely and justifiably hailed as heroes.

Also deserving of high praise, in my view, are some of the leading politicians and other civic leaders in our region’s states and cities.  There are quite of few of them whom I don’t agree with politically and whom I personally don’t like very much, but on the whole they all seem very smart.   And in this case they understood the risks, took them seriously, and made prudent decisions to order evacuations of areas in danger and to protect public property.  They deserve a lot of credit for their non-nonsense approach.

But I feel that there’s an important story that the press is almost ignoring.  There’s another group of people, little-mentioned in the media, who probably saved more lives and property than anyone else.  I refer to the experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and more generally the various branches of the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON October 31, 2012

I know Anand Gnanadesikan, professor at Johns Hopkins University’s department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, from when we were both studying physics as undergraduates in college.  He wrote something today that speaks with more authority than I could in my post earlier this morning, and it is a pleasure to make it available to you.

 

As Sandy approaches the coast I am very thankful for my former colleagues at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab who have spent decades trying to make better predictions of tropical cyclones. And the colleagues around the world who have spent decades developing the techniques of observing and modeling the physics of cyclones. Both the recurving of the storm and the high storm surge (currently already at major flood levels at a number of points between NY and DE) would have taken tens of thousands of people, at a minimum, by surprise. Kurihara’s first paper in the line of research that led to today’s prediction (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/results.php?author=1061) was in 1965. It took him almost a decade to get to the first three-dimensional model of a hurricane and another couple of decades to improve the models to the point where they showed useful skill.

Just a little plug — it is important to remember that this kind of event, low-probability, high impact, is what well-run government is for. Putting together a storm-surge warning system for NY Harbor is not something that a private company is likely to do — the chances of it being used in any given 10-year period are so small as to make it a worthless investment. And the research that goes into making a forecast like this involves understanding of small-scale turbulence, understanding the transfer of radiation through the atmosphere and its interaction with multiple scatterers and absorbers, figuring out how to put weather satellites into orbit and keep them running, figuring out how to incorporate this information in computer codes, getting these codes to run reproducibly on large numbers of processors… almost all of this was accomplished by people working on the government dime.
 

Anand Gnanadesikan
Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON October 29, 2012

The big storm of 2012 (at least, we hope it’s the biggest we’ll see this year) is approaching the New York City area, and though no one can predict in detail how bad it will be and for whom, there’s no question that with so much energy to play with, post-tropical quasi-hurricane quasi-nor’easter Sandy (also called “Frankenstorm” in honor of the Halloween holiday) is going to hit some of us very hard in the northeastern United States.  Not that it will be a disaster everywhere in the region.  With hurricane Irene last year, some areas just had a bit of wind and rain, while others had tremendous flooding that wiped out towns and roads and houses and history… and a few dozen lives, too. It will likely be the same this time.

How unusual is this storm?  Several weather forecasters have been quoted as saying that their supercomputer-based forecasting tools, which predicted Sandy to strengthen and become a monster in size, were doing things they’d never previously seen them do.  Right now, all you have to do is look at the weather map — the fact that there are tropical force winds extending over several hundreds of miles, and at the fact that the pressure of the atmosphere at the core of this storm is around 946 millibars and falling — to know there’s a lot of energy in this system that has to go somewhere, and is going to be taken out on somebody.   Although this is a Category 1 hurricane in terms of its fastest winds, 946 millibars is what one expects for a strong Category 3 hurricane; 1000 is average atmospheric pressure, and the mid-800s is about as low as it ever gets.  By comparison, the great blizzard of 1993 had a central pressure of about 960 millibars.  The Perfect Storm of 1991 (also a nor’easter-hurricane hybrid, like Sandy) had a central pressure of 972 millibars.  Anyone who thinks Sandy isn’t a dangerous storm hasn’t read enough history. (more…)

Picture of POSTED BY Matt Strassler

POSTED BY Matt Strassler

ON October 29, 2012

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