Tag Archives: ExoticDecays

Our Survey of Exotic Decays of the Higgs is Done

After many months gestation and a difficult labor, a behemoth is born!  Yes, it’s done, finally: our 200 page tome entitled “Exotic Decays of the 125 GeV Higgs Boson“.  Written by thirteen hard-working theoretical particle physicists, this is a paper that examines a wide class of possible decays that our newly found Higgs particle might exhibit, but that would not occur if the Standard Model of particle physics (the equations we use to describe the known elementary particles and forces plus the simplest possible type of Higgs particle) were all there was to see at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC], the giant proton-proton collider outside of Geneva, Switzerland.  

[Non-experts; sorry, but this paper was written for experts, and probably has a minimum of two words of jargon per sentence. I promise you a summary soon.]

Why is looking for unusual and unexpected decays of the Higgs particle so important?  [I’ve written about the possibility of these “exotic” decays before on this website (see herehere,  hereherehereherehere and here).]  Because Higgs particles are sensitive creatures, easily altered, possibly in subtle ways, by interactions with new types of particles that we wouldn’t yet know about from the LHC or our other experiments. (This sensitivity of the Higgs was noted as far back to the early 1980s, though its generality was perhaps only emphasized in the last decade.)  The Higgs particle is very interesting not only on its own, for what it might reveal about the Higgs field (on which our very existence depends), but also as a potential opportunity for the discovery of currently unknown, lightweight particles, to which it might decay.  Such particles might be the keys to unlocking secrets of nature, such as what dark matter is, or maybe even (extreme speculation alert) the naturalness puzzle — very roughly, the puzzle of why the mass of the Higgs particle can be so small compared to the masses of the smallest possible black holes.

The goal of our paper, which is extensive in its coverage (though still not comprehensive — this is a very big subject) is to help our experimental colleagues at ATLAS and CMS, the general purpose experiments at the LHC, decide what to search for in their current (2011-2012) and future (2015-) data, and perhaps assist in their decisions on triggering strategies for the data collecting run that will begin in 2015.  (Sorry, LHCb folks, we haven’t yet looked at decays where you’d have an advantage.) And we hope it will guide theorists too, by highlighting important unanswered questions about how to look for certain types of exotic decays.  Of course the paper has to go through peer review before it is published, but we hope it will be useful to our colleagues immediately. Time is short; 2015 is not very far away.

Although our paper contains some review of the literature, a number of its results are entirely new.  I’ll tell you more about them after I’ve recovered, and probably after most people are back from break in January.  (Maybe for now, as a teaser, I’ll just say that one of the strongest limits we obtained, as an estimate based on reinterpreting published ATLAS and CMS data, is that no more than a few × 10-4 of Higgs particles decay to a pair of neutral spin-one particles with mass in the 20 – 62 GeV/c2 range… and the experimentalists themselves, by re-analyzing their data, could surely do better than we did!)  But for the moment, I’d simply like to encourage my fellow experts, both from the theory side and the experimental side, to take a look… comments are welcome.

Finally, I’d like to congratulate and thank my young colleagues, all of whom are pre-tenure and several of whom are still not professors yet, on their excellent work… it has been a pleasure to collaborate with them.  They led the way, not me.  They are (in alphabetical order): David Curtin, Rouven Essig, Stefania Gori, Prerit Jaiswal, Andrey Katz, Tao Liu, Zhen Liu, David McKeen, Jessie Shelton, Ze’ev Surujon, Brock Tweedie, and Yi-Ming Zhong. They hail from around the world, but they’ve worked together like family… a great example of how our international effort to understand nature’s deep mysteries brings unity of purpose from a diversity of origins.

Final Day of SEARCH 2013

Day 3 of the SEARCH workshop (see here for an introduction and overviews of Day 1 and Day 2) opened with my own talk, entitled “On The Frontier: Where New Physics May Be Hiding”. The issue I was addressing is this:

Even though dozens of different strategies have been used by the experimenters at ATLAS and CMS (the two general purpose experiments at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC]) to look for various types of new particles, there are still many questions that haven’t been asked and many aspects of the data that haven’t been studied. My goal was to point out a few of these unasked or incompletely asked questions, ones that I think are very important for ATLAS and CMS experts to investigate… both in the existing data and also in the data that the LHC will start producing, with a higher energy per proton-proton collision, in 2015.

I covered four topics — I’ll be a bit long-winded here, so just skip over this part if it bores you.

1. Non-Standard-Model (or “exotic”) Higgs Decays: a lightweight Higgs particle, such as the one we’ve recently discovered, is very sensitive to novel effects, and can reveal them by decaying in unexpected ways. One class of possibilities, studied by a very wide range of theorists over the past decade, is that the Higgs might decay to unknown lightweight particles (possibly related in some way to dark matter). I’ve written about these possible Higgs decays a lot (here, here, here, here, here, here and here). This was a big topic of mine at the last SEARCH workshop, and is related to the issue of data parking/delaying. In recent months, a bunch of young theorists (with some limited help and advice from me) have been working to write an overview article, going systematically through the most promising non-Standard-Model decay modes of the Higgs, and studying how easy or difficult it will be to measure them.  Discoveries using the 2011-2012 data are certainly possible!  and at least at CMS, the parked data is going to play an important role.

2. What Variants of “Natural” Supersymmetry (And Related Models) Are Still Allowed By ATLAS and CMS Searches? A natural variant of supersymmetry (see my discussion of “naturalness”=genericity here) is one in which the Higgs particle’s mass and the Higgs field’s value (and therefore the W and Z particles’ masses) wouldn’t change drastically if you were somehow to vary the masses of superpartner particles by small amounts. Such variants tend to have the superpartner particle of the Higgs (called the “Higgsino”) relatively light (a few hundred GeV/c² or below), the superpartner of the top (the “top squark”, with which the Higgs interacts very strongly) also relatively light, and the superpartner of the gluino up in the 1-2 TeV range. If the gluino is heavier than 1.4 TeV or so, then it is too heavy to have been produced during the 2011-2012 LHC run; for variants with such a heavy gluino, we may have to wait until 2015 and beyond to discover or rule them out. But it turns out that if the gluino is light enough (generally a bit above 1 TeV/c²) it is possible to make very general arguments, without resort to the three assumptions that go into the most classic searches for supersymmetry, that almost all such natural and currently accessible variants are now ruled out. I say “almost” because there is at least one class of important exceptions where the case is clearly not yet closed, and for which the gluino mass could be well below 1 TeV/c². [Research to completely characterize the situation is still in progress; I’m working on it with Rutgers faculty member David Shih and postdocs Yevgeny Kats and Jared Evans.]  What we’ve learned is applicable beyond supersymmetry to certain other classes of speculative ideas.

3. Long-Lived Particles: In most LHC studies, it is assumed that any currently unknown particles that are produced in LHC collisions will decay in microscopic times to particles we know about. But it is also possible that one or more new type of particle will decay only after traveling a measurable distance (about 1 millimeter or greater) from the collision point. Searching for such “long-lived” particles (with lifetimes longer than a trillionth of a second!) is complicated; there are many cases to consider, a non-standard search strategy is almost always required, and sometimes specialized trigger strategies are needed. Until recently, only a few studies had been carried out, many with only 2011 data. A very important advance occurred very recently, however, when CMS produced a study, using the full 2011-2012 data set, looking for a long-lived particle that decays to two jets (or to anything that looks to the detector like two jets, which is a bit more general) after traveling up to a large fraction of a meter. The specialized trigger that was used requires about 300 GeV of energy or more to be produced in the proton-proton collision in the form of jets (or things that look like jets to the triggering system.) This is too much for the search to detect a Higgs particle decaying to one or two long-lived particles, because a Higgs particle’s mass-energy [E=mc2 energy] is only 125 GeV, and it is rather rare therefore for 300 GeV of energy in jets-et-al to be observed when a Higgs is produced. But in many speculative theories with long-lived particles, this amount of energy is easily obtained. As a result, this new CMS search clearly wipes out, at one stroke, many variants of a number of speculative models. It will take theorists a little while to fully understand the impact of this new search, but it will be big. Still, it’s by no means the final word.  We need to push harder, improving and broadening the use of these methods, in order that decays of the Higgs itself to long-lived particles can be searched for. This has been done already in a handful of cases (for example if the long-lived particle decays not to jets but to a muon/anti-muon pair or an electron/positron pair, or if the long-lived particle travels several meters before it decays) and in some cases it is already possible to show that at most 1 in 100 to 1000 Higgs particles produce long-lived particles of this type.  For some other cases, the triggers developed for the parked data may be crucial.

4. “Soft” Signals: A frontier that has never been explored, but which theorists have been talking about for some years, is one in which a high-energy process associated with a new particle is typically accompanied by an unusually large number of very low-energy particles (typically photons or hadrons with energy below a few GeV). The high-energy process is mimicked by certain common processes that occur in the Standard Model, and consequently the signal is drowned out, like a child’s voice in a crowded room. But the haze of a large number of low-energy particles that accompanies the signal is rare in the mimicking processes, so by keeping only those collisions that show something like this haze, it becomes possible to throw out the mimicking process most of the time, making the signal stand out — as though, in trying to find the child, one could identify a way to get most of the people to leave the room, reducing the noise enough for the child’s voice to be heard. [For experts: The most classic example of this situation arises in certain types of objects called “quirks”, though perhaps there are other examples. For non-experts: I’ll explain what quirks are some other time; it’s a sophisticated story.]

I was pleased that there was lively discussion on all of these four points; that’s essential for a good workshop.

After me there were talks by ATLAS expert Erez Etzion and CMS’s Steve Wurm, surveying a large number of searches for new particles and other phenomena by the two experiments. One new result that particularly caught my eye was a set of CMS searches for new very heavy particles that decay to pairs of W and/or Z particles.  The W and Z particles go flying outwards with tremendous energy, and form the kind of jet-like objects I mentioned yesterday in the context of Jesse Thaler’s talk on “jet substructure”.  This and a couple of other related measurements are reflective of our moving into a new era, in which detection of jet-like W and Z particles and jet-like top quarks has become part of the standard toolbox of a particle physicist.

The workshop concluded with three hour-long panel discussions:

  1. on the possible interplay between dark matter and LHC research (for instance: how production of “friends” of dark matter [i.e., particles that are somehow related to dark matter particles] may be easier to detect at the LHC than production of dark matter itself)
  2. on the highest priorities for the 2013-2014 shutdown period before the LHC restarts (for instance, conversations between theorists and experimentalists about the trigger strategies that should be used in the next LHC run)
  3. on what the opportunities of the 2015-2020 run of the LHC are likely to be, and what their implications may be (for instance, the ability to finally reach the 3 TeV/c2 mass range for the types of particles one would expect in the so-called “Randall-Sundrum” class of extra-dimensions models; the opportunities to look for very rare Higgs, top and W decays; and the potential to complete the program I outlined above of ruling out all but a very small class of natural variants of supersymmetry.)

All in all, a useful workshop — but its true value will depend on how much we all follow up on what we discussed.

A Surprising Higgs? (Higgs Symposium Summary, Continued)

A quick reminder that tonight at 6 Pacific/9 Eastern, Sean Carroll and I will be interviewed by Alan Boyle on the online radio show “Virtually Speaking Science”.  Topics will cover the LHC and other hot issues in physics, astrophysics, gravity and cosmology, as well as the scientific process.  See Monday’s post for the link to the show and other details.

Continuing my more careful summary of the Higgs Symposium (held January 9-11 at the University of Edinburgh, as part of the new Higgs Center for Theoretical Physics), and improving on my quick blog posts that I put up during and just after the symposium (#1, #2 and #3), I’ve finished another article about our current knowledge and ignorance concerning the recently discovered Higgs-like particle.  The new article

covers a topic that I spoke about extensively at the Symposium.  The other completed articles in this series are

One or two more segments to go.

 

 

Higgs Symposium: A More Careful Summary

My rather hasty, breathless and inconsistent summaries (#1, #2 and #3) of last week’s talks at the excellent Higgs Symposium (held at the University of Edinburgh, as part of the new Higgs Center for Theoretical Physics) clearly had their limitations.  So I thought it might be useful to give a more organized overview, with more careful language appropriate for non-expert readers, of our current knowledge and ignorance concerning the recently discovered Higgs-like particle (which most of us do believe is a Higgs particle of some type, though not necessarily of the simplest, “Standard Model” type.)

I’m therefore writing an article that tries to put the questions about the Higgs-like particle into a sensible order, and then draws upon the talks that were given at the Symposium to provide the current best answers. About half of the article is done, and you’re welcome to read it.  Due to other commitments, I won’t probably get back to finish it until next week.  But “Part 1” is long enough that it will take some time for most readers to absorb anyway…

It’s (not) The End of the World

The December solstice has come and gone at 11:11 a.m. London time (6:11 a.m New York time). That’s the moment when the north pole of the Earth points most away from the sun, and the south pole points most toward it. Because it’s followed by a weekend and then Christmas Eve, it marks the end of the 2012 blogging season, barring a major event between now and year’s end. But although 11:11 London time is the only moment of astronomical significance during this day (clearly the universe does not care where humans set our international date line and exactly how we set our time zones, so destruction was never going to be at local midnight — something the media doesn’t seem to get) it obviously wasn’t the end of the world.

A lot of people do put a lot of stock in prophecy, including prophecies of the end of the world that nobody ever made (such as the one not made for today by the Mayans, through their calendar) and others that people made but were wrong (such as those made by Harold Camping last year and by many throughout history who preceded him.) If anyone were any good at prophecy they’d be able to use their special knowledge to become billionaires, so maybe we should be watching Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg and the Koch brothers and people like that. I haven’t heard any rumors of them building bunkers or spaceships yet. Of course at the end of the year they may get a small tax hike, but that wouldn’t be the end of the world.

The Large Hadron Collider [LHC], meanwhile, has triumphantly reached the end of its first run of proton-proton collisions. Goal #1 of the LHC was to allow physicists at the ATLAS and CMS experiments to discover the Higgs particle, or particles, or whatever took their place in nature; and it would appear that, in a smashing success, they have co-discovered one.  But no Higgs particles, or anything like them, will be produced again until 2015. Although the LHC will run for a short while in early 2013, it will do so in a different mode, smashing not protons but the nuclei of lead atoms together, in order to study the properties of extremely hot and dense matter, under conditions the universe hasn’t seen since the earliest stages of the Big Bang that launched the current era of our universe.  Then it will be closed down for repairs and upgrades.  So until 2015, any additional information we’re going to learn about the Higgs particle, or any other unknown particle that might have been produced at the LHC, is going to be obtained by analyzing the data that has been collected in 2011 and 2012. The total amount of data is huge; what was collected in 2012 was about 4.5 times as much as in 2011, and it was taken at 8 TeV of energy per proton-proton collision rather than 7 TeV as in 2011. I can assure you there will be many new things learned from analyzing that data throughout 2013 and 2014.

Of course a lot of people prophesied confidently that we’d discover supersymmetry, or something else dramatic, very early on at the LHC. Boy, were they wrong! Those of us who were cautioning against such optimistic statements are not sure whether to laugh or cry, because of course it would have been great to have such a discovery early in the LHC program. But there was ample reason to believe (despite what other bloggers sometimes say) that even if supersymmetry exists and is accessible to the LHC experiments, discovering it could take a lot longer than just two years!  For instance, see this paper written in 2006 pointing out that the search strategies being planned for seeking supersymmetry might fail in the presence of a few extra lightweight particles not predicted in the minimal variants of supersymmetry. As far as I can tell at present, this very big loophole has only partly been closed by the LHC studies done up to now. The same loophole applies for other speculative ideas, including certain variants of LHC-accessible extra dimensions. I am hopeful that these loopholes can be closed in 2013 and 2014, with additional analysis on the current data, but until they are, you should be very cautious believing those who claim that reasonable variants of LHC-accessible supersymmetry (meaning “natural variants of supersymmetry that resolve the hierarchy problem”) are ruled out by the LHC experiments. It’s just not true. Not yet. The only classes of theories that have been almost thoroughly ruled out by LHC data are those predict on general grounds that there should be no observable Higgs particle at all (e.g. classic technicolor).

While we’re on the subject, I’ve been looking back at how I did on prophecy this year. It’s been a remarkably good year, probably my best ever — though admittedly I only made very easy (though not necessarily common) predictions. First, the really easy one:  I assured you, as did most of my colleagues, that 2012 would be the Year of the Higgs — at least, the Year of the Simplest Possible Higgs particle, called the “Standard Model Higgs”. It would be the year when Phase 1 of the Higgs Search would end — when we’d either find a Higgs particle of Standard Model type (or something looking vaguely like it), or, if not, we’d know we’d have to move to a more aggressive search in Phase 2, in which we’d look for more complicated versions of the Higgs particle that would have been much harder to find. We started the year with ambiguous hints of the Higgs particle, too flimsy to be sure of, but certainly tantalizing, at around a mass of 125 GeV/c2. In July the hints turned into a discovery — somewhat faster than expected for a Standard Model Higgs particle, because the rate for this particle to appear in collisions that produce two photons was higher than anticipated. The excess in the photon signal means either the probability for the Higgs particle to decay to photons is larger than predicted for a Higgs of Standard Model type, or both CMS and ATLAS experienced a fortunate statistical fluctuation that made the discovery easier. We still don’t know which it was; though we’ll know more by March, this ambiguity may remain with us until 2015.

One prophecy I made all the way back at the beginning of this blog, July 2011, was that the earliest search strategy for the Higgs, through its decays to a lepton, anti-lepton, neutrino and anti-neutrino, wouldn’t end up being crucial in the discovery; it was just too difficult. (In this experimental context, “lepton” refers only to “electron” or “muon”; taus don’t count, for technical reasons.) In the end, I said, it would be decays of the Higgs to two photons and to two lepton/anti-lepton pairs that would be the critical ones, because they would provide a clean signal that would be uncontroversial. And that prophesy was correct; the photon-based and lepton-based searches were the signals that led to discovery.

Now we’ve reached December, and the data seems to imply that except possibly for this overabundance of photons, which still tantalizes us, the various measurements of how the Higgs-like particle is produced and decays are starting to agree, to a precision which is still only moderate, with the predictions of the Standard Model for a Higgs of this mass. Fewer and fewer experts are still suggesting that this is not a Higgs particle. But it will be some years yet — 2018 or later — before measurements are precise enough to start convincing people that this Higgs particle is really of Standard Model type. Many variants of the Standard Model, with new particles and forces, predict that the difference of the real Higgs from a Standard Model Higgs may be subtle, with deviations at the ten percent level or even less. Meanwhile, other Higgs-like particles, with different masses and different properties, might be hiding in the data, and it may take quite a while to track them down. Many years of data collecting and data analysis lie ahead, in Phase 2 of the Higgs search.

Another prophecy I made at the beginning of the year was that Exotic Decays of the Higgs would be a high priority for 2012. You might think this prophesy was wrong, because in fact, so far, there have been very few searches at ATLAS, CMS and LHCb for such decays. But the challenge that required prioritizing these decays wasn’t data analysis; it was the problem of even collecting the data. The problem is that many exotic decays of the Higgs would lead to events that might not be selected by the all-important trigger system that determines which tiny fraction of the LHC’s collisions to store permanently for analysis! At the beginning of 2012 there was a risk that some of these processes would have been dumped by the trigger and irretrievably lost from the 2012 data, making future searches for such decays impossible or greatly degraded. At a hadron collider like the LHC, you have to think ahead! If you don’t consider carefully the analyses you’ll want to do a year or two from now, you may not set the trigger properly today. So although the priority for data analysis in 2012 was to find the Higgs particle and measure its bread-and-butter properties, the fact that the Higgs has come out looking more or less Standard Model-like in 2012 means that focusing on exotic possibilities, including exotic decays, will be one of the obvious places to look for something new, and thus a very high priority for data analysis, in 2013 and 2014. And that’s why, for the trigger — for the collection of the data — exotic decays were a very high priority for 2012. Indeed, one significant use of the new strategy of delayed data streaming at ATLAS and of data parking at CMS (two names for the same thing) was to address this priority. [My participation in this effort, working with experimentalists and with several young theorists, was my most rewarding project of 2012.]  As I explained to you, a Higgs particle with a low mass, such as 125 GeV/c2, is very sensitive to the presence of new particles and forces that are otherwise very difficult to detect, and it easily could exhibit one or more types of exotic decays.  So there will be a lot of effort put into looking for signs of exotic decays in 2013 and 2014! I’m very excited about all the work that lies ahead of us.

Now, the prophecy I’d like to make, but cannot — because I do not have any special insight into the answer — is on the question of whether the LHC will make great new discoveries in the future, or whether the LHC has already made its last discovery: a Higgs particle of Standard Model type. Even if the latter is the case, we will need years of data from the LHC in order to distinguish these two possibilities; there’s no way for us to guess. It’s clear that Nature’s holding secrets from us.  We know the Standard Model (the equations we use to describe all the known particles and forces) is not a complete theory of nature, because it doesn’t explain things like dark matter (hey, were dark matter particles perhaps discovered in 2012?), and it doesn’t tell us why, for example, there are six types of quarks, or why the heaviest quark has a mass that is more than 10,000 times larger than the mass of the lightest quarks, etc. What we don’t know is whether the answers to those secrets are accessible to the LHC; does it have enough energy per collision, and enough collisions, for the job?  The only way to find out is to run the LHC, and to dig thoroughly through its data for any sign of anything amiss with the predictions of the Standard Model. This is very hard work, and it will take the rest of the decade (but not until the end of the world.)

In the meantime, please do not fret about the quiet in the tunnel outside Geneva, Switzerland. The LHC will be back, bigger and better (well, at least with more energy per collision) in 2015. And while we wait during the two year shutdown, the experimentalists at ATLAS, CMS, and LHCb will be hard at work, producing many new results from the 2011 and 2012 proton collision data! Even the experiments CDF and DZero from the terminated Tevatron are still writing new papers. In short, fear not: not only isn’t the December solstice of 2012 the end of the world, it doesn’t even signal a temporary stop to the news about the Higgs particle!

—-

One last personal note (just for those with some interest in my future.)

The Trigger and the Parking Lot

I told you a few days ago about the workshop I attended recently at the Perimeter Institute (PI), which brought a number of particle theorists together with members of the CMS experiment, one of the two general purpose experiments operating at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC]. I described the four main areas of discussion, and mentioned a fifth issue that underlies them all: triggering. Today I’m going to explain to you one of two big advances in triggering at CMS that have recently been made public, the one called “Data Parking”. And I’ll also describe my small role in Data Parking over the last ten months, which will explain, in retrospect, some of the other articles that have appeared on this site during that period.

[This article is almost entirely about CMS, but CMS’s competitor, ATLAS, has also made public that they have something essentially identical (I think!) to Data Parking, which they call “Delayed Data Streaming”.]

Click here to read the rest of this article.

A Real Workshop

In the field of particle physics, the word “workshop” has a rather broad usage; some workshops are just conferences with a little bit of time for discussion or some other additional feature.  But some workshops are about WORK…. typically morning-til-night work.  This includes the one I just attended at the Perimeter Institute (PI) in Waterloo, Canada, which brought particle experimentalists from the CMS experiment (one of the two general-purpose experiments at the Large Hadron Collider [LHC] — the other being ATLAS) together with some particle theorists like myself.  In fact, it was one of the most productive workshops I’ve ever participated in.

The workshop was organized by the PI’s young theoretical particle physics professors, Philip Schuster and Natalia Toro, along with CMS’s current spokesman Joseph Incandela and physics coordinator Greg Landsberg. (Incandela, professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara, is now famous for giving CMS’s talk July 4th announcing the observation of a Higgs-like particle; ATLAS’s talk was given by Fabiola Gianotti. Landsberg is a senior professor at Brown University.) Other participants included many of the current “conveners” from CMS — typically very experienced and skilled people who’ve been selected to help supervise segments of the research program — and a couple of dozen LHC theorists, mostly under the age of 40, who are experienced in communicating with LHC experimenters about their measurements.  Continue reading

Exotic Higgs Decays: Making the Case

For those of you curious about why posts have been a little sparse this month and have been wondering what I’ve been up to, here’s the latest on what has been an on-going story.

The Large Hadron Collider [LHC] is producing lots of new data, and the search for the Higgs particle continues at the ATLAS and CMS experiments. We’re still within Phase 1 of the search for the Higgs particle (I’ve described the two main phases here and in more detail here) in which the experiments are trying to discover unequivocally, or exclude unequivocally, the simplest possible form of the Higgs particle, which is called the Standard Model Higgs. Phase 1 is well along the way, the experimenters having excluded a Standard Model Higgs particle at any mass except a small range around 125 GeV/c2. Within that range there are hints that a Higgs particle might be showing up (see here, herehere and here). Some would say the evidence is significant and are quite convinced already, while others (quite a few of the experimentalists, and a few cautious theorists such as myself) would say the hints are not yet especially significant and are willing to let more data settle the issue. But everyone agrees there’s a very high chance the issue will be settled in 2012.

At that point, the Higgs search will move toward Phase 2. In fact, in some sense it is already in transition, because either there is a Standard Model Higgs particle with a mass near 125 GeV/c2, or the Higgs particle, if it exists, must be more exotic and complicated — two possibilities on which we can focus our planning.

One of the most important questions that will be asked (and is already being asked) is whether the particle that is showing up in the 2011 data (if it is really there in the first place) is a Standard Model Higgs or a look-alike Higgs particle that is actually more complicated in some way. Continue reading